The Baylor Bears and UCF Knights kick off Week 9 in the Big 12 on Friday night in Orlando, with both teams coming off dramatically different weekends.
UCF enters the game riding high after stunning No. 2 BYU 39-31 in double overtime for the Knights’ biggest win since joining the Big 12. Meanwhile, Baylor is beginning a new era after firing head coach Dave Aranda following Saturday’s 25-24 loss to Kansas, with defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman taking over as interim head coach.
Despite taking very different paths to get here, Baylor and UCF enter Friday night’s game with identical 4-3 overall records and 2-2 marks in Big 12 play. For UCF, the question is whether Scott Frost’s team can build off its breakthrough win or suffer a letdown. For Baylor, it’s about what kind of response the Bears will have in their first game without Aranda.
Here is everything you need to know about Baylor vs. UCF in Week 9, including our prediction and pick for Friday night’s Big 12 matchup.
Baylor vs. UCF Odds
- Spread: UCF -1.5
- Over/Under: 48.5
- Moneyline: UCF -120/Baylor +100
Odds as of Tuesday afternoon. Odds are subject to change.
The Biggest Question: How do the emotions play a factor?
The emotions on both sides of this game are tremendous. UCF is coming off of one of the biggest wins in program history over No. 2 BYU in double overtime at home. Now, they have to put that in the rearview mirror and take on Baylor. What’ done is done. Have the Knights spent the last week in celebration mode? And then, on the other side, head coach Dave Aranda was fired on Sunday by Baylor. How does the team respond? How does defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman do in the interim role? There are so many unknowns going into this game, beyond the X’s and O’s, that ultimately will determine the outcome.
Baylor vs. UCF Prediction and Pick
Prediction: UCF 23, Baylor 20
It’s a short week for both teams, but the good news for UCF is that they’re playing their second-straight home game after a bye week. They haven’t had to leave the friendly confines of Central Florida in nearly a month. Meantime, Baylor is getting set for its 3rd road game in its last four match ups, and their first without Aranda.
In games like this, I try to find a nugget to sway me one way or the other, and here’s what I’ve found: Baylor leads the Big 12 with 27 sacks in seven games. But one of the many things that UCF has done well with Keyone Jenkins is move the pocket, get rid of the ball quickly and avoid pressure in the backfield. BYU only had one sack last week against UCF, and the Knights have only allowed 10 in seven games, good for fourth fewest in the Big 12 Conference. Negating the pass rush by Baylor opens up a lot of opportunities for the UCF offense, and I believe that will be a game-changer on Friday night.
Baylor has proven it can play with, and beat, some of the lesser Big 12 teams like Colorado and Arizona State. But even against just slightly better competition, TCU and Kansas, they came up short. UCF is one of the more underrated teams in the country, which I’ve been telling you since August. And despite their injuries, they’re playing solid, team football, and that culminated with a with vs. BYU. But it was not a fluke. They led Houston in the second half on the road. They were beating Oklahoma State in Stillwater early in the game. This team can play with the best. Now, they get a chance to play one of the worst? I’ll not overcomplicate this and take UCF to win and cover.
Baylor’s run defense ranks 4th in the Big 12, but they’ve already played the three worst running teams in the conference in Colorado, Arizona State and TCU. Now, they get Duke Watson, Jenkins and the rest of the run game going on Friday night to seal a win.
UCF wins. UCF covers.
