BYU and TCU will meet in Fort Worth this weekend in one of the most important Big 12 matchups of Week 5. The No. 10 Cougars enter the game unbeaten at 3-0 and 1-0 in conference play after opening Big 12 action in Week 2 with a 28-17 victory over Arizona and following it up with a 41-23 road win over Colorado State. The Cougars are fresh off a bye week in Week 4.
Meanwhile, TCU sits at 2-2 overall and 0-1 in the Big 12. The Horned Frogs have bounced back from an opening-week loss to North Carolina with wins over Grambling State and Arizona State, but they’re coming off a 21-13 road loss to UCF that dropped them to 0-1 in the conference.
For BYU, this game represents another opportunity to prove it belongs among the conference’s top contenders. For TCU, it’s a chance to score a signature win on its home field and avoid falling further behind in the Big 12 race. Here’s a further look at the game with our preview, prediction and pick for the Week 5 Big 12 match up.
BYU vs. TCU Odds
- Spread: BYU -6.5
- Over/Under: 47.5
- Moneyline: BYU -240/TCU +195
Odds as of Tuesday afternoon. Odds are subject to change.
The Biggest Question: Can TCU Get Any Offense Going?
The Horned Frogs have been the worst offensive team in the Big 12, this side of Colorado. They are averaging the second-fewest points in the Big 12, and their red zone percentage is third-worst in the league. New OC Gordon Sammis and QB Jaden Craig should be feeling the heat. And now, they take on a BYU defense that has looked strong, despite losing Jay Hill and moving on to Kelly Poppinga at coordinator. BYU’s defense ranks 4th in the league so far in efficiency and is second against the run. TCU’s run game has been abysmal, despite the Frogs trying to play the quarterback more under center to build a running game this season. However, that just hasn’t happened. But with BYU rested and off a bye, they’re going to score points. The question is if TCU can keep up.
BYU vs. TCU Prediction and Pick
Prediction: BYU 24, TCU 20
Sonny Dykes is coaching to avoid the hot seat in this game. He can’t afford to start the season 0-2 in league play. The Horned Frogs have a bye week after this and are home and will throw everything they have at the Cougars. But I still think they’ll come up short. But I do have them covering the spread. Combine those situational reasons with a TCU defense that has been underrated, and a passing game that, when it can stop the pass rush (which hasn’t been BYU’s strong suit anyway this season) is capable of getting the passing game going, especially with Jordan Dwyer back at wide receiver as of last week. TCU getting the wake-up call it needed may have come at the perfect time. However, I still think they come up short. BYU is deeper, better and holds on late for the win.
But I’m on TCU to cover. According to Wager Talk, 90%+ of the tickets and money are on BYU. Yet the line hasn’t moved off TCU +6.5. If it doesn’t move by kick off, I may buy the half-point anyway to feel safe, but clearly Vegas is more than happy with where the number is at, despite the overwhelming action on the Cougars.
BYU wins. TCU covers.
