The Big 12 Conference is about to begin the season this week with Week 1 of the college football season getting underway. From there it’s a three-month sprint to the Big 12 Championship game in Arlington, Texas, in December, with the winner going to the College Football Playoff.
All 16 teams have expectations going into the season, but some have higher expectations than others. Here are five teams that are the most likely to fall short of their preseason expectations.
Texas Tech
Part of the reason the Red Raiders are on this list is because expectations are sky high. Many outsiders have Texas Tech going 11-1 and winning the league title game to finish 12-1. Texas Tech has its own internal expectations and those align with winning a league title and getting back to the CFP. When those are the expectations, it’s not hard to fall short of them.
With the target the Red Raiders have on their back, it might only take one ill-timed loss for them to fall short of those expectations.
Houston
I like the Cougars this year. This is the best positioned the program has been to win a Big 12 championship and the first time in a long time it’s been well positioned to make noise on a national level.
But that means they could also feel well short of those expectations, which are for the Cougars to contend for a Big 12 Championship game berth. The Cougars have an experienced quarterback and one of the best defensive rosters in the Big 12. But they also have some tough games, and I could see them losing two or three league games to fall short of expectations.
TCU
The Horned Frogs won nine games last year and I think some folks forget that. Even though they’ve flipped quarterbacks after Josh Hoover’s transfer to Indiana, TCU still has the talent to be a real contender in the league.
But there’s a pattern with TCU. It seems to perform its best when expectations are not at their peak. I think people expect more of the Horned Frogs this season. That’s why I think there’s a possibility they could fall below expectations. The game in Ireland worries me too — especially now that they’ve lost it. A loss in that game set back Kansas State’s season a year ago, in my opinion.
BYU
The Cougars are a legitimate Big 12 championship and CFP contender. They have the best returning running back in the conference in LJ Martin and a solid group of core players. Quarterback Bear Bachmeier should be better this year, too. But the Cougars fall into the same category as Texas Tech — expectations are so high it’s almost impossible to not fall short of them in some way.
BYU is targeting a title. Anything less will be disappointing.
Utah
Utah had a great last season under Kyle Whittingham, though Whittingham didn’t know that it was going to be his last season. Morgan Scalley has never been a head coach. Second, this team only has five returning starters and the only returning starters on the offense are quarterback Devon Dampier and running back Wayshawn Parker.
The lack of consistency doesn’t help a new head coach. I see a lot of trap games. The Utes won 10 games last year and I think the expectations are that high. If Scalley shows there’s a learning curve early, it could be a season that falls below what the Utes are hoping for in 2026.
