Week 8 brought even more chaos to the Big 12 race, and the conference championship picture remains as crowded as ever. Texas Tech suffered its first loss of the season, Utah strengthened its position atop the standings, and Baylor finally made a difficult but necessary decision regarding the future of its football program by firing Dave Aranda. With the stretch run now underway, here are my Tuesday Takes coming out of another wild weekend of Big 12 football.
Texas Tech Will Win Out
There is no denying that Texas Tech was exposed in Saturday’s loss to Cincinnati.
Despite entering the game at 6-0, the Red Raiders had shown signs of vulnerability throughout the season. Slow starts, inconsistent quarterback play, and an inability to put teams away were recurring issues that eventually caught up with them.
Against Cincinnati, those flaws were impossible to overlook. The Bearcats dominated the Red Raiders and delivered a loss that should serve as a wake-up call heading into the second half of the season.
That said, I’m not jumping ship on Texas Tech.
The Red Raiders still sit at 6-1 and remain firmly in the Big 12 championship race. More importantly, their remaining schedule sets up well. Upcoming games against Arizona and Oklahoma State won’t be easy, but I believe those matchups are more favorable than many people think.
Every contender in the Big 12 has flaws. Utah has survived several close calls. BYU has battled injuries. No team is perfect.
Texas Tech is still one of the most talented teams in the conference, and I expect Joey McGuire’s team to respond. My overreaction? The Red Raiders rebound from this loss, finish the regular season at 11-1, and find themselves back in Arlington for the Big 12 Championship Game.
Utah Will Make the College Football Playoff
After another weekend of upsets around college football, Utah stands alone as the Big 12’s last undefeated team.
The Utes strengthened their résumé with a quality victory over Houston and now control their own destiny in both the conference race and the College Football Playoff picture.
That doesn’t mean the road ahead will be easy.
Utah still must travel to Cincinnati and Arizona while hosting rival BYU in what could be one of the biggest games of the conference season. There are plenty of opportunities for the Utes to stumble.
However, even if Utah drops one of those games, an 11-1 regular-season record is entirely realistic.
Whether that record guarantees a trip to Arlington remains to be seen given how crowded the league standings are. But if the Utes finish 11-1, it’s hard to imagine them being left out of the 12-team College Football Playoff field.
At this point, Utah looks like the Big 12’s safest playoff bet.
Baylor Did the Right Thing
The Dave Aranda era at Baylor has felt like one long roller-coaster ride.
When expectations were low, the Bears frequently exceeded them. When expectations were high, they often fell short. Time and time again, Aranda seemed to do just enough to buy himself more time.
But eventually, reality catches up.
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The program has steadily declined since winning the Big 12 Championship five years ago, and there were few signs that the trajectory was changing. Whether it was due to buyout concerns or confidence that things could turn around, Baylor continued to stick with Aranda longer than many expected.
Following the loss to Kansas, Aranda’s record stood at 40-40 overall and 26-32 in Big 12 play.
That’s simply not good enough at a program with Baylor’s resources and recent history of success.
Could things have improved with more time? Maybe. But Baylor’s leadership deserves credit for acting now rather than waiting until the offseason and risking falling behind other schools in the coaching market.
Sometimes the hardest decisions are the right ones.
For Baylor, ripping off the band-aid now gives the program the best opportunity to move forward and begin building its next chapter.
