What’s going on in the Big 12 and beyond? I expand and explain every Sunday in Postscripts at Heartland College Sports, your home for independent Big 12 coverage.
This week, we assess each team’s Big 12 title chances, along with their College Football Playoff chances, at the halfway point of the 2025 season.
Who Still Has a Shot?
Every football team in the Big 12 Conference has played at least six games overall and at least three Big 12 games. I wrote last week about the need to lose two or fewer games to remain in the Big 12 Championship game race. But I didn’t explore the College Football Playoff race, where the Big 12 champion is most likely going to get an automatic bid (remember, it’s the top five-ranked conference champions by rule). But commissioner Brett Yormark has stated the league’s goal is to get more than one team in.
Last year, only teams with 10 or more wins entering selection Sunday made the field, including at-large teams. In fact, one 10-win power conference team was left out (Miami). Using that as the basic criterion, I’m assessing CFP at-large chances too.
So, after at least six games, where does the league stand? Let’s attack it by tier. This is based on where teams stand now, not where I or any of us think they may end up.
No Losses, Overall or Big 12
No. 7 Texas Tech (6-0, 3-0), No. 15 BYU (6-0, 3-0)
Both won games on Saturday, though the Cougars needed double overtime to beat Arizona. Should the two teams keep winning, the Red Raiders and the Cougars would most likely battle for league supremacy in early November in Lubbock. There is no chance that both could end up undefeated and get to Arlington. But the odds remain strong; each could be 11-1 overall, 8-1 in Big 12 action, and reach Arlington.
Big 12 Title Game Chances: Strong. Each can afford a loss and still reasonably have a chance to get to Arlington. In addition to playing each other, Texas Tech still must play Arizona State, and BYU still must play Utah.
College Football Playoff At-Large Chances: Strong. Each can afford a loss. If both make the Big 12 title game with one loss, the loser has a strong at-large case at 11-2.
No Big 12 Losses, But One Overall Loss
No. 24 Cincinnati (5-1, 3-0)
The surprise of the Big 12, the Bearcats are a win away from reaching a bowl game for the first time under coach Scott Satterfield. Next week’s game with Oklahoma State gives them a chance to reach six wins. Two ranked games against Utah and BYU are down the line. Cincinnati could afford one loss and still be in contention.
Big 12 Title Game Chances: Strong. But with no matchup against Texas Tech, Cincy really can’t lose the BYU game.
CFP At-Large Chances: Solid. The overall loss to Nebraska means the Bearcats have only a bit more maneuverability.
One-Loss Big 12 Teams
No. 23 Utah (5-1, 2-1), Arizona State (4-2, 2-1), Houston (5-1, 2-1), Baylor (4-2, 2-1)
Utah blew the doors off Arizona State, which was without quarterback Sam Leavitt, and picked up a valuable tiebreaker if it comes to that. The Utes also handed the Sun Devils their second overall loss, which hurts the Sun Devils’ CFP chances as an at-large. Houston took care of OSU to remain a one-loss team overall, while Baylor was off.
Big 12 Title Game Chances: Solid. As I wrote last week, any team with just one league loss is still in contention. But all four need to continue winning. Utah has the most valuable tiebreaker of any team in the conference right now.
CFP At-Large Chances: Solid for Utah and Houston, though Houston loses any tiebreaker with Texas Tech. If either holds at one overall loss and makes the Big 12 title game, it has a chance, win or lose. No margin for error for Baylor and Arizona State, as each needs to win out to get to 10 wins and have any reasonable shot.
Two Big 12 Losses
Iowa State (5-2, 2-2), Kansas (4-3, 2-2), Kansas State (3-4, 2-2), Arizona (4-2, 1-2), TCU (4-2, 1-2)
Kansas State pulled off a nice win at home over TCU. Kansas and Iowa State both fell to two league losses. With losses to Cincinnati and Texas Tech, the Jayhawks are in jail when it comes to tiebreakers.
Big 12 Title Game Chances: Slim. Last year, four teams lost two games and shared the top spot in the conference. Each of these teams needs the field to come back to them. Some already have bad tiebreakers.
CFP At-Large Chances: Kansas and Kansas State are realistically out of at-large contention. Iowa State, Arizona, and TCU can still finish 10-2 for at-large consideration, though both may be left out of the Big 12 title race and could damage their chances.
Realistically Done
Colorado (3-4, 1-2), UCF (3-3, 0-3), West Virginia (2-4, 0-3), Oklahoma State (1-5, 0-3)
Realistically, these four teams are out of the race for either the Big 12 title game or a CFP at-large berth. Last year, three teams in the Big 12 finished with three losses and were in a tie for fifth. None can reach the 10 wins needed to match what at-large teams had, at a minimum, last year.
Basketball is Coming
I’m the basketball guy here at Heartland, so a couple of programming notes. Starting on Monday, my team-by-team previews will start. We’ll run four on Monday — Arizona and Arizona State men, along with West Virginia and Utah women. Then, we’ll run two each day until the final Friday before the regular season begins on Nov. 3.
Second, I’ll be at Big 12 media days in Kansas City next Tuesday and Wednesday. Can’t wait to get away from the day job and talk to coaches and players to prepare for the upcoming season.
