Big 12 Previews

TCU vs. UNC: Prediction, ATS Pick and Key Storylines

tcu unc dublin graphic

The college football season gets underway with Week 0, and arguably the game of the weekend is in Dublin, Ireland where the TCU Horned Frogs take on the UNC Tar Heels. The two teams met in the season opener last year, and it was the Horned Frogs rolled to a 48-14 win in Chapel Hill. Now, it’s UNC trying to revenge in Year 2 under Bill Belichick. Meantime, Sonny Dykes is looking to get the season off on the right foot and get the Horned Frogs back to the top of the Big 12 Conference. Here’s a game preview, prediction and pick.

Two Key Players to Watch

Jaden Craig, TCU Quarterback

The much-hyped quarterback from Harvard will get make his debut against the big boys. And he comes in with a lot of hype, and a ton of intrigue. Craig threw for over 5,000 yards the last two seasons, with 48 touchdowns to 10 interceptions, as the starter in Boston. But now, he goes to the Power 4 level, and he has new offensive coordinator Gordon Sammis from UConn in tow as well. There’s no doubt that Sonny Dykes will have his imprint on the offense, but there’s a lot of new faces around this side of the ball that are worth watching.

Billy Edwards, UNC Quarterback

I hate to double-down on the position, but Edwards just won the quarterback competition in recent days, and has been the most-intriguing position to watch at camp. Edwards, who previously played at Maryland and Wisconsin, has played in parts of four seasons, including as a fulltime starter in 2024, and brought the most experience to the Tar Heels’ quarterback competition. He has dual-threat ability and can throw a good deep ball. Let’s see how much is on display this weekend.

Top Storylines

TCU, Stop the Run

My guess is that Belichick and new OC Bobby Petrino will want to work Edwards in slowly, and that means leaning on a running game early that has experience. Leading Tar Heel rusher Demon June is back after running for 494 yards and averaging 5.5 yards per pop. Second-leading rusher Benjamin Hall is back, too. TCU needs to slow down June and Hall, and then force the Tar Heels into 3rd and longs, which is where they might be able to make that big play, or force that big turnover. TCU won the turnover battle 3-1 last year in their big win.

Speaking of Turnovers…

The Horned Frogs turned it over two or more times in five games last season, and they lost four of them. They went 8-0 when they didn’t give it up multiple times (like the UNC game). The Tar Heels were not good in this department last season either. UNC came up with six turnovers in its first three games, and just six over the last nine games. Who wins this battle?

Prediction: TCU 31, UNC 17

The Horned Frogs are a potential Big 12 dark horse, and if they can smack around UNC like they did last year, that would be a solid start to the year. TCU needs to get off to a quick start in this game, as UNC struggled early in games, getting outscored 177-105 in the first half last season.

TCU leading rusher Jeremy Payne came on strong last season for the Frogs, and the offense should focus around him early in the season. Plus, he can catch it out of the back field. I expect him to combine with transfer Landon Walker for a big night in Dublin that will result in the Horned Frogs getting the season started with a convincing win. It won’t be as big as last season’s, but the Horned Frogs will take care of business and cover the 6.5-point spread with relative ease.

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