No. 22 Houston hits the road Saturday for a trip to Manhattan, where the Cougars will take on Kansas State in a key Big 12 matchup at Bill Snyder Family Stadium.
Houston enters Week 6 at 4-1 overall and 1-1 in Big 12 play after rallying from a 17-point deficit to beat UCF 27-17 last weekend. Kansas State, meanwhile, is 3-1 overall and 0-1 in conference play after having a bye week to regroup following a 31-26 loss at Cincinnati.
That makes Saturday an important game for both teams. Houston has an opportunity to build off last week’s dramatic comeback and remain in the thick of the Big 12 race, while Kansas State can’t afford to fall to 0-2 in conference play. The Wildcats will also be without tight end Will Anciaux for the remainder of the season.
Can Houston pick up a significant Big 12 road victory, or will Kansas State get back on track at home?
Here’s everything you need to know about Houston vs. Kansas State, including the latest odds, our biggest question and our prediction and pick for Saturday’s Week 6 matchup.
Houston vs. Kansas State Betting Odds
- Spread: Kansas State -2.5
- Over/Under: 55.5
- Moneyline: Kansas State -137/Houston +114
Odds as of Tuesday afternoon. Odds are subject to change.
The Biggest Question: The Houston Offense vs. the K-State Defense?
This is the match up that will decide this game. Houston’s offense was shut out vs. UCF last weekend, but then turned it on in the final 20 minutes of the game to win 27-17. The Cougars have the second-most efficient offense in the Big 12 Conference. Meantime, Kansas State’s defense is the second-most efficient defense in the Big 12 this season. But the Cats got run all over by Cincinnati two weeks ago. What changes and adjustments have been made since the loss and a bye week? As for Houston, they’ve been solid, but inconsistent. Conner Weigman is a veteran, but he can’t be running his way to victories every week, even though he did it last week vs. UCF. That’s not how the Cougars are going to win big moving forward. There are question marks for the Houston offense and the K-State defense, but whichever one wins this match up is the one who wins the game.
Kansas vs. Middle Tennessee State Prediction and Pick
Prediction: Houston 31, Kansas State 26
Houston showed what kind of team it has in the final 20 minutes last week to storm back against UCF. It’s like they were asleep at the wheel and turned it on. They need more of that moving forward in order to win this game on the road. Kansas State’s resume has looked weaker by the week, and the way they were blown off the ball at Cincinnati is admittedly fresh in my mind. The Bearcats racked up over 7 yards per carry vs. the Wildcats, and then played a bend-but-don’t-break defense against Avery Johnson, which got more effective as the game went along.
Houston’s secondary has been underrated as well, led by Javion White, Jordan Allen and Jalen Mayo, who all rank in the Top 6 in passes defended in the Big 12. Houston can trust its secondary players to be on an island, and let their front seven stop the run, which they have done very effectively so far this season, ranking first in the Big 12 Conference in rushing yards allowed per game. That could make for a long afternoon for Johnson and a wide receiver corps that has not been consistent yet this season.
As for the betting odds, despite Houston’s Top 25 ranking, bettors continue to back Kansas State heavily. More than 89% of tickets and 91% of the money are on the Wildcats, who remain roughly a 2.5-point favorite at home. Yet despite all that action, oddsmakers have been reluctant to push the line much beyond the key number of 3. That’s enough to look closely at the Houston side, as the market doesn’t appear nearly as eager to move toward Kansas State as the betting splits would suggest.
