One of the biggest games in the Big 12 this weekend takes place Saturday at noon ET on FS1 when undefeated Texas Tech (6-0, 3-0 Big 12) visits Cincinnati (4-2, 1-2 Big 12) at Nippert Stadium. The Red Raiders are coming off a dominant 53-25 victory over Arizona State and have emerged as a legitimate conference title contender, rising into the Top 10 nationally. Meanwhile, Cincinnati returns home looking to bounce back after a heartbreaking 45-42 loss to West Virginia in Morgantown. There’s plenty of drama around this match up following the off-season storylines around Brendan Sorsby, who planned to transfer from Cincinnati and play for Texas Tech, until the quarterback ultimately left the program over a gambling scandal. But now, these two teams get set to meet in Week 8. Here are the odds, a preview and a prediction for this match up on Saturday.
Texas Tech vs. Cincinnati Odds
- Spread: Texas Tech -10.5
- Over/Under: 56.5
- Moneyline: Texas Tech -410/Cincinnati +315
Odds as of Tuesday afternoon. Odds are subject to change.
The Biggest Question: Can Cincinnati Get Its Running Game Going?
This is the match up that will decide whether or not Cincinnati can pull off the upset. The Bearcats rank third in the Big 12 in rushing yards per game at 231.2 ypg on the ground, but the Red Raiders are tops in the Big 12 defensively, allowing just 82.0 rushing yards per game. Which side cracks first? The Bearcats had 233 rushing yards in their 45-42 loss to West Virginia last week, a game they did not trail until the clock hit 0:00 in the 4th quarter. The combination of Cole Tabb, JC French IV, Gi’Bran Payne and Zylan Perry need to have a huge Saturday at home to pull off the upset against the Red Raiders.
Texas Tech vs. Cincinnati Prediction and Pick
Prediction: Texas Tech 38, Cincinnati 23
Cincinnati coming off of their close loss to West Virginia doesn’t concern me coming into this game. They’ve had this one circled since all the drama went down around Brendan Sorsby this off-season. In the meantime, Texas Tech is more fired up than they have probably been for a game all season. Everyone at Texas Tech wants some revenge over some of the alleged shenanigans around how this drama went down.
As for the game, did Texas Tech figure everything out during the bye week that led their blowout win over Arizona State? Or is ASU just that bad? What if it’s a combination of both. I get the attractiveness of wanting to emotionally play Cincinnati as an underdog, but I’m not there. The Bearcats have yet to prove they can play with the upper echelon of the Big 12 Conference. They can beat, and compete, with the mid-tier to bottom, but they don’t do the same with the really good teams, of which Texas Tech is one of them. In Cincinnati’s four-game losing streak last season, they were 0-4 against the spread, with two of those games at home.
Now, here comes Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are 18-2 since the start of the 2025 season, and 17 of those wins are by double-digits. Will Hammond is getting healthier, the offensive line is starting to gel, and the defense is coming together. Texas Tech has outscored its opponents 81-25 over the last six quarters. They keep rolling on Saturday.
The biggest question for Cincinnati is whether it can consistently move the ball against one of the better defenses in the Big 12. While the Bearcats have attracted support from bettors throughout the week, they still have to prove they can generate enough explosive plays to stay within striking distance for four quarters. If Texas Tech forces Cincinnati into obvious passing situations, the Red Raiders have the defensive playmakers to create the separation needed to cover this number.
Texas Tech wins. Cincinnati covers.
