As November football arrives in the Big 12, every game carries added significance, and Saturday’s matchup between Cincinnati and Iowa State is no exception. The Bearcats are desperately trying to reverse their recent late-season struggles and move one step closer to bowl eligibility, while Iowa State looks to build momentum after a thrilling top-25 win over Oklahoma State. With both teams fighting to keep their postseason goals alive, this Week 11 showdown in Ames could prove pivotal for two programs searching for a strong finish to the 2026 season. The Cyclones will lean on their home-field advantage, while Cincinnati hopes to prove its November narrative has finally changed.
Here’s a look at our odds, preview and a prediction for the Cincinnati vs. Iowa State game.
Iowa State vs. Cincinnati Odds
- Spread: Iowa State -2.5
- Over/Under: 60.5
- Moneyline: Iowa State -146/Cincinnati +122
Odds as of Tuesday afternoon. Odds are subject to change.
The Biggest Question: Who Stops the Run?
Both these teams wants to establish the running game on Saturday, so who is going to stop the run? Iowa State’s defense ranks 13th in the Big 12 Conference in rushing yards allowed per game, while Cincinnati’s defense ranks 14th in rushing yards allowed per game. Offensively, Cincinnati is the No. 2-ranked team in the Big 12 Conference, racking up 221.9 yards per game on the ground, and Iowa State is 9th in the league in rushing yards per game. Whoever wins the ground game will walk away with the win on Saturday in Ames.
Iowa State vs. Cincinnati Prediction and Pick
Prediction: Cincinnati 27, Iowa State 24
Iowa State has proven to be a a tough place to place, once again, in 2026. Just ask Utah and Oklahoma State. That being said, I believe Cincinnati is being undervalued here. The Bearcats have played three-straight Top 20 opponents in Texas Tech, Utah and Houston. They beat Tech and hung with Houston, with Utah being the only rough loss. Now, they get to take on an Iowa State team that has struggled to stop the run, and is ranks the worst in FBS (138th) in percentage of missed tackles (19.5%). By comparison, Cincinnati ranks 26th at 12.9%. Also of note, Iowa State ranks 128th in defensive yards allowed per play. These numbers should have Cincinnati running backs Cole Tabb and Gi’Bran Payne salivating.
And despite Cincinnati playing one of the toughest Big 12 schedules, their offensive yards per play ranks in the Top 25 in the country. That’s impressive. On top of that, the Bearcats are in the Top 25 in the country in turnover margin, while Iowa State ranks 64th in the country.
Despite the game being in Ames, I like Cincinnati in this spot. One more win gets them to bowl eligibility, which is a must for Scott Satterfield to feel like this program is trending in the right direction.
Cincinnati wins. Cincinnati covers.
