The biggest game of the Big 12’s Week 7 slate takes place in Provo, where No. 8 BYU welcomes No. 2 Notre Dame for a massive Saturday night showdown. With ESPN College GameDay in town and two Top 10 teams meeting at LaVell Edwards Stadium, the Cougars have an opportunity to earn one of the biggest wins in program history and make a major statement in the College Football Playoff race. Can BYU defend its home field against the Fighting Irish? Here’s our Notre Dame vs. BYU prediction, pick and preview.
BYU vs. Notre Dame Odds
- Spread: Notre Dame -10.5
- Over/Under: 47.5
- Moneyline: Notre Dame -410/BYU +350
Odds as of Monday afternoon. Odds are subject to change.
The Biggest Question: How Does BYU Replace LJ Martin?
We know that the Preseason Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year is not going to be active for this game after suffering an injury last week vs. TCU. So, how does BYU get its offense going without LJ Martin? Last week, it was Bear Bachmeier through the air, and on the ground (9 carries for 109 yards, while Journee Tonga led the way after that with only eight carries). The former three-star prospect is only a freshman and is still getting comfortable in the BYU system. It’s a lot to ask of him. Through five games, Bachmeier has 239 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns on 36 attempts, averaging 6.6 yards per carry. And he’s going to need to carry a lot of the load this weekend against the Irish.
BYU vs. Notre Dame Prediction and Pick
Prediction: BYU 23, Notre Dame 20
Yes, I’m rolling with the BYU Cougars at home in the upset. First off, the spread is ridiculous (more on that below). This game in prime time in Provo, is one of the biggest games in the history of that campus. Lavelle Edwards Stadium is going to be absolutely bonkers.
Now as for the game itself, BYU and Notre Dame are both in the Top 7 in Net Yards Per Play, and both rank in the Top 12 in Defensive Yards Per Play. Both teams have played mediocre competition thus far, with strength of schedules of 63 (Notre Dame) and 86 (BYU). If you remove each team’s loss to Notre Dame/BYU, Notre Dame’s opponents are 15-13, while BYU’s are 12-12. So Notre Dame has played the somewhat stronger schedule, but the gap isn’t enormous.
Notre Dame has seen mobile quarterbacks this season, but it hasn’t faced one who has been as consistently dangerous with his legs as Bear Bachmeier. His ability to turn broken plays and designed quarterback runs into explosive gains presents a different challenge for an Irish defense that has dominated most of its schedule.
On the other side, BYU has one of the best pass defenses in the Big 12, and the country, and that’s where they can slow down the Irish, and try to force this game to be low scoring. The Cougars kept Noah Fifita and a Top-10 Arizona passing offense scoreless in the second half of their Week 2 game and well below their season average in points and passing yards.
Finally, the factor of the size and scope of this game in Provo is unlikely anything most of the national media can really comprehend. Notre Dame has plenty of experience, but this will be a different kind of test. The Irish returned one of the most experienced rosters in college football, but their first two true road games this season came at Purdue and North Carolina. Neither environment will resemble a Saturday night in Provo against an undefeated, Top-10 BYU team with College GameDay in town. That’s worth a full touchdown of points in my book.
The betting market appears to be showing some respected money on BYU. Notre Dame is attracting the overwhelming majority of public attention, but the line has moved toward the Cougars, falling from an opener as high as Notre Dame -11.5 to around -10. That reverse movement is notable considering the Irish are the more popular side.
BYU wins. BYU covers.
