The Revivalry takes center stage Saturday night as TCU travels to Waco to face Baylor in a Big 12 rivalry matchup on FS1. Both programs have had their share of ups and downs this season, but bragging rights and positioning in the conference race give this one plenty of importance. Can Baylor take care of business at home, or will TCU leave Waco with a rivalry win? Here’s our TCU vs. Baylor prediction, pick and preview for Week 7.
Baylor vs. TCU Odds
- Spread: Baylor -5.5
- Over/Under: 48.5
- Moneyline: Baylor -215/TCU +176
Odds as of Tuesday afternoon. Odds are subject to change.
The Biggest Question: Can TCU’s Offense Do Anything?
TCU’s offense has been abysmal. New offensive coordinator Gordon Sammis has wanted to establish more of a running attack, but the Horned Frogs are dead last in the Big 12 in rushing yards per game. And now, they’re taking on a Baylor team that is tied for first in the Big 12 in yards allowed per carry (2.9). TCU’s defense has actually been underrated so far this season (more below), but this offense can’t get out of its own way. The unit ranks 123rd in the country in yards gained per play, while the defense is in the Top 25 in the country in yards allowed per play. Is this the week that Jaden Craig, Jeremy Payne, Jordan Dwyer and the rest of the offense really gets humming? That would be a great way to try and get this season back on track, and get Sonny Dykes OFF the hot seat.
Baylor vs. TCU Prediction and Pick
Prediction: Baylor 24, TCU 16
Baylor may be a bit overinflated coming off of a 55-19 win at Arizona State, followed by a bye week where they get to hear how great they are at 4-1. But, it’s fair to say we need to see more. DJ Lagway was electric in Tempe with four touchdowns to no interceptions, but he needs to keep that consistency going, and TCU will be the best defense he’s faced so far this season. And the running game for the Bears is underrated with Caden Knighten and Ryelan Morris as a solid 1-2 punch. Also, while I don’t like to overvalue “vibes”, Baylor just feels right right now. Joe Klanderman, who may be one of the more underrated defensive minds in college football dating back to his time at North Dakota State, has his defense on point, with a Top 4 scoring, rushing and passing defense in the Big 12.
For TCU, you can look at this team and say, well, they haven’t been blown out yet, with one score losses to UNC, UCF and BYU. That’s true, but has a team ever felt so far away from competing in three games that it lost by one score? I can’t think of an example that comes to mind. The box score and final score often tell a completely different story than what you see when you actually watch TCU play.
On the betting front, TCU has become one of the most popular plays on the board, attracting roughly 90% of both tickets and money. Normally, that type of support would push a spread through the key number of seven, but sportsbooks have largely held this game at TCU -6.5. That could suggest resistance from oddsmakers or respected buyback on Baylor at the current number. Either way, the market has shown little interest in making bettors lay a full touchdown with the Horned Frogs.
Baylor wins, Baylor covers.
