The Sunflower Showdown returns Saturday as Kansas travels to Manhattan to take on Kansas State in one of the Big 12’s longest-running rivalries. Both teams enter Week 7 searching for answers after difficult starts to conference play, adding even more importance to a rivalry game that rarely needs it. Can Kansas snap its recent struggles against the Wildcats, or will Kansas State defend its home field? Here’s our Kansas vs. Kansas State prediction, pick and preview.
Kansas State vs. Kansas Odds
- Spread: Kansas State -4.5
- Over/Under: 55.5
- Moneyline: Kansas State -200/Kansas +164
Odds as of Tuesday afternoon. Odds are subject to change.
The Biggest Question: Isaiah Marshall vs. the K-State Defense?
This is the biggest question going into this game. We just watched Kansas carve up Utah’s pass defense last Saturday in Salt Lake City. The first-year starter continues to improve and get better with each passing week. However, the K-State pass defense is ranked No. 1 in the Big 12. Now, I think that number is skewed because K-State has been so bad at stopping the run, teams have not felt the need to pass much on the Wildcats. They’d rather just beat them on the ground, which has worked, at least in the Cincinnati and Houston games. In their two conference games, K-State is giving up over 250 yards per game on the ground. That’s the worst in the league. Marshall has dual-threat ability, and he will have the chance to showcase it this weekend, which could then open up the passing game as well.
Kansas State vs. Kansas Prediction and Pick
Prediction: Kansas State 38, Kansas 35
Kansas is playing better than Kansas State. However, the game is in Manhattan, and the last time Kansas won this game, I wasn’t legally allowed to have a beer (legally being the key word here). I just need to see it to believe it. I will not be shocked if KU leaves with a win, but I will take K-State in a high-scoring game because neither defense has been very good, and Avery Johnson will be able to get his run-game going in a way he was unable to vs. Cincinnati and Houston. That will be the difference this week in Manhattan, as running back Rodney Fields will break out as well for the Cats. Devon Dampier and Byrd Ficklin combined for over 100 rushing yards at QB for Utah this week, which should give KSU fans hope. Kansas has been a bend-but-don’t break defense, but I see Kansas State forcing Marshall to beat them through the air, and K-State’s defense will get it going with a big turnover or two to flip this game. Plus, Kansas has been racked up the most penalty yards per game in the Big 12 play so far, which could bite them this week on the road in a tough rivalry match up.
The betting market has moved strongly toward Kansas. After opening with Kansas State favored by roughly a touchdown, the spread has dropped into the 4.5-to-5-point range at many sportsbooks. The Jayhawks have also attracted a larger share of the money than tickets, a sign that bigger wagers have landed on Kansas. Whether that’s respect for Lance Leipold’s team or skepticism about Kansas State laying nearly a touchdown in a rivalry game, the market has clearly pushed this matchup toward the Jayhawks. At least when it comes to betting the spread.
Kansas State wins. Kansas covers.
