Three weeks into the college football season, ESPN’s Football Power Index has a new favorite in the Big 12 — and it isn’t Texas Tech or BYU.
Following Week 3, Utah jumped four spots to No. 15 nationally in ESPN’s updated FPI rankings with a rating of 16.5. That puts the Utes ahead of Texas Tech, which dropped one spot to No. 17 with a 15.8 rating, and BYU, which slipped one spot to No. 19 at 15.2.
That’s a significant change from where things stood before the season. ESPN’s initial FPI had Texas Tech No. 10 nationally and comfortably atop the Big 12 with a 20.0 rating. BYU was next at No. 20, while Utah sat all the way down at No. 31.
Three weeks later, Morgan Scalley’s Utes have made quite the climb.
Utah improved to 3-0 with a dominant win over Utah State on Saturday, continuing an impressive start to the season. Meanwhile, Texas Tech survived a 28-26 scare against Houston on Friday night to remain unbeaten, while BYU moved to 3-0 with a 41-23 road win at Colorado State.
And that’s where things get interesting.
FPI isn’t designed to rank teams based strictly on résumé. It’s a predictive metric intended to measure team strength going forward, with the rating representing how many points above or below an average FBS team a program would be on a neutral field.
So ESPN’s computer isn’t necessarily saying Utah has accomplished more than Texas Tech or BYU.
It is saying that, right now, it believes Utah is the strongest team in the Big 12.
And after entering the season well behind the Red Raiders and Cougars in ESPN’s own model, that’s a noteworthy development only three weeks into the season.
Where Does the Rest of the Big 12 Rank in ESPN’s FPI?
Behind the Big 12’s top three, there is a sizable gap before the rest of the conference enters the picture.
That separation is particularly interesting considering how much has already changed through three weeks. Kansas State entered Week 3 as ESPN’s fourth-highest-rated Big 12 team at No. 30 nationally, followed by Houston at No. 31 and Baylor at No. 38, followed by TCU at No. 41. Houston then gave Texas Tech everything it could handle Friday night before falling 28-26 in Lubbock, while Kansas State picked up another win against Tulane.
One of the teams worth watching when ESPN’s numbers continue to adjust is West Virginia. The Mountaineers entered the season all the way down at No. 61 in FPI and jumped 12 spots to No. 49 by Sunday. WVU is now 3-0 after upsetting No. 25 Virginia 38-27 on Saturday night, with Michael Hawkins Jr. accounting for five touchdowns. That should make the Mountaineers one of the conference’s most interesting FPI movers going forward.
At the other end of the spectrum, Colorado could be headed in the opposite direction following its blowout loss to Northwestern, while Kansas has now lost back-to-back games after falling to Arizona State in London. Cincinnati fell 12 spots after having to come back vs. Miami (OH).
The bigger picture is that ESPN’s model still sees a fairly clear divide in the Big 12. Utah, Texas Tech and BYU have separated themselves from the pack in FPI, while everyone else is trying to close the gap.
Three weeks into the season, however, the results are already giving ESPN’s computer plenty to reconsider.
