One of the biggest Big 12 games of Week 7 takes place in Lubbock as Arizona State visits No. 10 Texas Tech on Saturday afternoon. The Red Raiders have established themselves as one of the conference’s top contenders, while Arizona State gets an opportunity to make a major statement on the road as the Big 12 race reaches the midway point. Can the Sun Devils pull off the upset, or will Texas Tech keep rolling at home? Here’s our Arizona State vs. Texas Tech prediction, pick and preview.
Texas Tech vs. Arizona State Odds
- Spread: Texas Tech 14.5
- Over/Under: 48.5
- Moneyline: Texas Tech -720/Arizona State +500
Odds as of Tuesday afternoon. Odds are subject to change.
The Biggest Question: Does Texas Tech Have Its Breakout Game?
We have been waiting all season to see the Texas Tech of 2025. And that may be unfair, but it’s the reality based on the expectations coming into this season. And we just haven’t seen it yet. And there hasn’t been one specific reason. It’s been an underperformance across the board, on both sides of the ball. The Red Raiders have a Strength of Schedule that is 70th in college football, yet their net yards per play ranks 47th in the country, with the offensive yards per play at 55th, and the defense ranking 41st. The passing game and passing defense have been the larger issues on both sides, and now they go up against an Arizona State team that ranks in the top half of the Big 12 in passing yards per game, and is third in yards per pass allowed in the Big 12.
Texas Tech vs. Arizona State Prediction and Pick
Prediction: Texas Tech 34, Arizona State 27
While Arizona State has been underwhelming thus far, it’s been a weird season with the nine-day road trip to Texas A&M and London for the Kansas game, back home for a blowout loss to Baylor and then a mediocre win over Hawaii. However, Kenny Dillingham gets his guys up for big games. The Sun Devils handed the Red Raiders their only regular season loss in 2025, and while that game was in Tempe and this one is in Lubbock, the spread is just too big. Tech has not earned being a two-touchdown favorite in 2026. We can’t apply the 2025 standards anymore.
By the numbers, this is the best passing game Texas Tech will have played this season, and even with that, their pass defense has been the second worst in the Big 12. What does that mean for Cutter Boley, Reed Harris and Omarion Miller? It could mean a break out night for two, or all three, of those guys, who admittedly haven’t been super consistent so far this season. Arizona State needs to step it up on third downs, where their conversion rate in the worst in the Big 12. The good new? Texas Tech’s third down defense is near the bottom of the Big 12 (14th).
Arizona State also enters the game with a slight edge in passing defense efficiency according to Big 12 statistics. The Sun Devils are allowing opponents to complete just 54.5% of their passes compared to 61.5% for Texas Tech. While the Red Raiders have generated more interceptions, Arizona State has been more consistent at preventing opposing quarterbacks from efficiently moving the ball through the air. Considering the early-season struggles for Will Hammond, this gives me an ASU lean in this game.
It’s not that I am in love with Arizona State here. I’m not. But Tech needs to earn a spread of this size.
Texas Tech wins. Arizona State covers.
