Cincinnati and West Virginia meet Saturday afternoon in Morgantown for a Big 12 matchup between two teams looking to get their seasons moving in the right direction. The Bearcats head to Milan Puskar Stadium for a noon ET kickoff on TNT/truTV, while the Mountaineers return home after another difficult defensive performance against Arizona. Can West Virginia finally get things turned around, or will Cincinnati take advantage on the road? Here’s our Cincinnati vs. West Virginia prediction, pick and preview for Week 7.
Cincinnati vs. West Virginia Odds
- Spread: West Virginia -1.5
- Over/Under: 63.5
- Moneyline: West Virginia -118/Cincinnati -102
Odds as of Tuesday afternoon. Odds are subject to change.
The Biggest Question: Which Rushing Attack Wins Out?
This game figures to be decided on the ground. West Virginia enters the weekend with the No. 1 rushing offense in the Big 12, averaging 295.5 rushing yards per game, while Cincinnati ranks third at 230.8 yards per game. It sets up a fascinating battle between the Mountaineers’ backfield led by Michael Hawkins Jr. and Cam Cook and a Cincinnati rushing attack featuring Cole Tabb and Gi’Bran Payne.
West Virginia’s offense has been at its best when the running game is rolling, but Cincinnati showed two weeks ago against Kansas State that it can make a mobile quarterback uncomfortable and force an offense away from its preferred approach. If the Bearcats can duplicate that formula against Hawkins, they’ll put themselves in position to leave Morgantown with a win.
It’s also a desperation spot for Rich Rodriguez and the Mountaineers, who are still searching for consistency halfway through the season. Meanwhile, Cincinnati is coming off a bye week looking to erase the memory of a disappointing 34-7 loss to Arizona. The fresher team could have a significant advantage if this turns into a physical, four-quarter battle.
Cincinnati vs. West Virginia Prediction and Pick
Prediction: Cincinnati 35, West Virginia 31
When does West Virginia’s defense start to improve? Zac Alley recently called his unit the worst in college football, and the Mountaineers did little to dispute that assessment against Arizona. WVU enters this game ranked near the bottom of the FBS in yards allowed per play, and that has become a major concern halfway through the season.
Two weeks ago, Cincinnati faced a similar challenge against Kansas State quarterback Avery Johnson and largely kept him in check, forcing him to win through the air. Michael Hawkins gives West Virginia a more explosive element offensively than Kansas State had in that matchup, but it’s hard to overlook what Cincinnati has quietly done on offense so far this season. The Bearcats have been one of the more underrated units in the Big 12 and should find opportunities against a struggling Mountaineer defense.
There’s also a scheduling edge working in Cincinnati’s favor. The Bearcats are coming off a bye week, while West Virginia will be playing its seventh consecutive game without a break. Late in the season, those spots can matter.
One hidden factor to watch is turnovers. Cincinnati and West Virginia rank first and second in the Big 12 in forced fumbles, which creates the possibility that one defensive takeaway could decide a tight game.
The betting market also offers a subtle clue. While Cincinnati is drawing only about 60% of the tickets, the Bearcats have attracted nearly 90% of the money wagered on the game. That discrepancy often indicates larger wagers backing Cincinnati, even with the game being played in Morgantown.
I’ll take Cincinnati to win outright and, as a slight underdog, cover the spread.
Cincinnati wins. Cincinnati covers.
