As the college football season gets set to begin this weekend with Week 0, where TCU will play UNC in one of the best games of the weekend, I decided to predict the entire Big 12 football season. And there’s no doubt I will be 100% right in picking over 100 Big 12 games, right? I mean, no doubt about it! Here are my predictions using this Big12ology.com website for the 2026 Big 12 season.
1. Texas Tech: 11-1 (8-1)
Last year I picked Texas Tech to win based on the talent gap alone. I think the talent gap has shrunk between Tech and the field, but it’s still the most-talented roster top to bottom in the Big 12. So, I’m not going to overcomplicate this. I predict they lose on Halloween vs. Arizona. It’ll be a week after an emotional game at Cincinnati (Brendan Sorsby drama), and there might be a hangover the following week against Arizona’s high-octane offense.
2. Arizona: 10-2 (7-2)
Based on tiebreakers, Arizona was my No. 2 team in the Big 12 Conference this season. I did not do this with any intention of picking Arizona; I just went game-by-game and week-by-week, and it turned out I had the Wildcats going 7-2 in the league and winning the 4-way tiebreaker. I have Arizona losing to BYU and West Virginia, but the tie-breaker isn’t head-to-head; it’s combined opponent win percentage. Since it’s a 4-way tie, that’s where Arizona gets the edge over BYU.
3. Utah: 10-2 (7-2)
Utah plays eight games in a row to end the season, and I have them dropping two tough road games at the end of the season, back-to-back, at Arizona and at TCU. The Utes will be solid in Year 1 under Morgan Scalley, but it won’t be enough to get over the hump to a Big 12 Championship Game.
4. Houston: 10-2 (7-2)
Speaking of tough road losses, that’s where Houston will struggle and drop two games at Texas Tech and Utah. I think the Cougars can reach the Big 12 Championship Game, and maybe this season goes slightly differently than I expect, but the Cougars’ road schedule is not easy, with trips to Lubbock, Manhattan, Salt Lake City, Boulder, and Morgantown. No matter how good or bad those teams are, those are really tough places to play. That will hurt them just enough this season.
5. BYU: 10-2 (7-2)
Yes, I have BYU beating Notre Dame at home, but then have a let-down loss at UCF in the heat the following week. And I also think BYU loses to Utah. These teams have played razor-thin margin games the last two seasons, with BYU winning both. Utah gets over the hump at home this season, which keeps BYU out of Arlington.
6. Arizona State: 8-4 (6-3)
Kenny Dillingham continues to keep this team in the first or second tier of the Big 12, despite a ton of turnover. A tough non-conference loss at Texas A&M (which I hate to admit) will be followed by three tough Big 12 losses, on the road against Texas Tech and BYU, along with a loss to Arizona to end the season, also on the road, in a rivalry game.
7. UCF: 9-3 (6-3)
UCF may be my surprise team of the season, with a 9-3 finish and 6-3 in the Big 12. I see UCF losing at Houston and at Oklahoma State in back-to-back weeks, plus a home loss to Arizona State in November. However, this team will have some big wins and upsets this season. It would be a monster Year 2 for Scott Frost if this comes to fruition.
8. TCU: 8-4 (5-4)
TCU believes this can be the season that it pops, but the Horned Frogs might get off to a slow start. They are working in a new OC, new QB, and have had some off-season drama of late with locker room fights and player removals. My guess is this team will be one of the biggest enigmas in the Big 12, able to beat the best of the best, and lose to the worst of the worst.
9. West Virginia: 8-4 (5-4)
This would be a huge leap for Rich Rodriguez in Year 2, if he can achieve the 8-4 projected record. I have them losing games at TCU, at Texas Tech, at Utah, and at home to Houston. But if Rich Rod is able to get that run game humming behind Cam Cook & Co., maybe this is the floor for the Mountaineers?!
10. Oklahoma State: 8-4 (5-4)
Speaking of programs looking to turn things around, the Pokes want to do that in Year 1 under Eric Morris. I believe the offense will do more than enough to win games, but it also might not do enough to win enough games. The Pokes will have an up-and-down season in Year 1 under Morris, but the trend will be welcomed.
11. Cincinnati: 6-6 (3-6)
It’s a .500 program under Scott Satterfield. Bank ’em for somewhere between 5-7 and 7-5. Consistency, I guess. I can’t justify going any higher right now. Just beat Boston College in Week 1.
12. Baylor: 4-8 (2-7)
I don’t see how Dave Aranda survives this season if it goes as I believe it will. And I feel fairly confident that this is how it will ultimately go down. If I’m wrong, so be it.
13. Kansas State: 4-8 (2-7)
This might be recency bias; however, I am down on K-State after they lost two key offensive linemen this past week. I was already skeptical on the offensive side, even with Collin Klein back in charge. But these injuries could really put a damper on this season. Even K-State special teams, their staple, needs to be turned around. Let’s see if they can.
14. Colorado: 2-10 (1-8)
Colorado is going to have another tough season, even if it includes some close games, which I believe that it will. The one game I have them winning is home vs. Kansas State on Halloween. If they can figure it out in the trenches, I will be wrong, and happy about it.
15. Kansas: 3-9 (1-8)
Kansas is not going back to the Kansas of old. But I am not sure what to make of this team in 2026. Andy K coming back to run the offense is key, but I don’t know if he has the horses, starting at quarterback. I have them winning a game at home vs. Baylor in November.
16. Iowa State: 2-10 (0-9)
Listen, I want to be wrong here. But I think it’s going to be a tough first year for Jimmy Rogers in Ames. He’s rebuilding from scratch. He’s already lost a key player to injury (Braden Awls). There will be improvement throughout the season, but 2026 won’t be pretty.
