NCAA Tournament: Oklahoma vs. Missouri Preview and Prediction
The Oklahoma Sooners will face the Missouri Tigers in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Saturday in Indiana. Here is a preview of the game.
No. 8 Oklahoma (15-10) vs. No. 9 Missouri (16-9), 6:25 p.m. CT, Saturday, TV: TNT
Region: West
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium Equality (North)
National rankings: Oklahoma: No ranking; Missouri: No ranking.
Path to March Madness: Oklahoma: At-large berth (lost in Big 12 Tournament quarterfinals); Missouri: At-large berth (lost in SEC Tournament quarterfinals).
NCAA Tournament history: Oklahoma and Missouri have met once in the NCAA Tournament. Oklahoma defeated its former Big 12 rival, 81-75, in the Elite Eight of the 2002 NCAA Tournament.
Winner faces: Gonzaga, Norfolk State or Appalachian State in the second round of the NCAA Tournament on Monday.
READ MORE: 2021 NCAA Tournament: Schedule, Printable Bracket, Dates and Times
READ MORE: The Big 12’s Easiest, Hardest Paths to the Sweet 16
Projected starting lineups
Oklahoma: G Austin Reaves, G Umoja Gibson, G Elijah Harkless, G De’Vion Harmon, F Brady Manek.
Missouri: G Xavier Pinson, G Mark Smith, G Dru Smith, F Jeremiah Tilmon, F Kobe Brown.
Player to watch
Oklahoma: Elijah Harkless. It’s hard to believe that Harkless didn’t even get to play in a game until mid-December. That was because the transfer wasn’t eligible until the NCAA decided to implement a blanket rule for the 2020-21 season that allowed any transfer to play due to COVID-19. That proved to be a godsend for the Sooners. You’re not going to find Harkless on an All-Big 12 team, unless you’re into guys that do the kinds of things that don’t always show up on stat sheets. He’s emerged as OU’s go-to perimeter defender, and quality rebounder, and screen-setter. All that, and Harkless actually can put up numbers — 7.8 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 2.0 apg, and 2.0 spg — they just pale in comparison to players like Austin Reaves and De’Vion Harmon. That’s OK. Every team needs a glue guy. In the NCAA Tournament, those players can be invaluable, and that’s exactly what Harkless is to the Sooners.
Oklahoma: Dru Smith: The most experienced player on the Missouri roster — he’s a redshirt senior — is also tied as the team’s leading scorer with 14.1 points per game. He’s also tops in assists (3.9 apg), steals (2.0) and minutes played per game (33.9). However, Smith spent his first two years at Evansville, where he was Missouri Valley Conference All-Freshman in 2017 and led the MVC in 3-point shooting in 2018, before transferring to Mizzou. Last season he averaged 12.7 points and was in the top 20 in steals per game. Smith was named All-SEC First Team by the league’s coaches after leading the Tigers in points, assists, steals and 3-point shooting percentage during the regular season. He was also an All-SEC defensive selection for the second straight year. There isn’t a more versatile player in the Missouri lineup than Smith.
Heading into the NCAA Tournament
Oklahoma: In January the Sooners became just the third team in the AP Poll era to beat four Top 10 teams in a month. Three weeks ago the Sooners were as high as No. 7 in the AP Poll. So, what happened? The Sooners lost five of their final six games, fell out of both polls and fell into a No. 8 seed when, at times, they were projected as high as a No. 3. Four of those five losses were to ranked teams. All of them were by seven points or less. So the Sooners haven’t been out of any of those games. But they’re not closing the deal after doing such a good job of it all season. That’s why one can still be bullish about the Sooners. Austin Reaves (17.7 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 4.7 apg) had an All-Big 12-worthy season and if you’re going to slow down OU, you start with him. De’Vion Harmon (12.9 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 2.1 apg) is an emerging star in the Big 12 and next year he could be an All-Big 12 First-Team selection. Umoja Gibson (9.5 ppg) is a gifted 3-point shooter, one of the best in the Big 12, and can catch fire fast. Brady Manek has started all four years at OU, and while he’s averaged 10.8 ppg and 5.1 rpg this season, he’s only rounding back into form after a bout with COVID-19 in January. Alondes Williams, Kur Kuath and Jalen Hill will give the Sooners good minutes off the bench. OU is the rare team at this tournament that can go eight or nine players deep during a game and not lose much in terms of quality. That’s how head coach Lon Kruger likes it.
Missouri: The Tigers are out to win their first NCAA Tournament game in a decade (86-78 vs. Clemson, 2010). Since the start of February, the Tigers have been a .500 team in SEC play. Chief on its resume was that stunning win over Alabama on Feb. 6. But they also lost twice to Ole Miss and Arkansas in that span, including their loss to the Razorbacks in the SEC Tournament. Along with Dru Smith, Xavier Pinson (14.1 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 2.9 apg) and Jeremiah Tilmon (12.3 ppg, 7.0 rpg) drive the bus for the Tigers. The other two projected starters are heavy contributors — Mark Smith (9.6 ppg, 3.2 rpg) and Kobe Brown (8.0 ppg, 6.3 rpg). Missouri is 10-4 when Smith and Pinson are both in double figures. Think of the Missouri roster like the roster at Texas. It’s heavy on experience, multiple double-digit scorers, and career accolades. Six different Tigers have scored at least 500 career points. Brown is a player to watch. He’s come on of late and had some big games in February in place of Tilmon, who lost his grandmother in February and had to miss a few games. Since then, Brown has earned a place in the starting lineup. It’s also worth pointing out that without Tilmon, the Tigers lost three straight games. Tilmon was named All-SEC.
Who wins?
This is a game where both teams are trending in a similar direction. They both feel, well, stuck in neutral. Games between No. 8 and No. 9 seeds in the NCAA Tournament are typically pick ’em games, and that’s exactly how this one feels. Even though Missouri has been in the SEC for nearly a decade, the two programs are familiar with each other (they’ve met 211 times). But the pair haven’t faced each other with Missouri head coach Cuonzo Martin at the helm. That might be a new variable to consider. Mizzou boasts itself as being one of 13 teams in the country with seven Quad 1 wins. Oklahoma only had five, but remember that these Sooners were so hot in January they beat four Top 10 teams in a month, only the third team to do that in the AP Poll era. Mizzou probably has a better interior game than the Sooners, but the Sooners’ guards might be just a nudge better than Mizzou’s. So, yeah, close your eyes and just pick one. I’ll take OU, since I’ve been watching them all year.
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