Since dropping their season opener, the Cincinnati Bearcats have rattled off four straight wins, including a statement victory over then–Top 15 Iowa State. On Saturday, Oct. 11, they’ll host a UCF team still searching for its first conference win of the 2025 season after starting league play 0-2.
Saturday’s Big 12 matchup will kick off at 12 p.m. ET on FS1, with the Bearcats entering as 10.5-point favorites. The over/under is set at 54.5 total points. Here are two key players to watch in this game, followed by the top storylines for each team, and a prediction from Heartland College Sports.
Two Key Players to Watch
Evan Pryor (RB, Cincinnati)
Running back Evan Pryor was a major factor in Cincinnati’s upset win last weekend, racking up 111 yards and two touchdowns while averaging an impressive 11.1 yards per carry. He consistently made things difficult for the Red Raiders’ defense with his elusiveness and burst. With UCF allowing at least 120 rushing yards in each of the past two games, Pryor could be in line for another big performance.
Myles Montgomery (RB, UCF)
Both teams feature strong options in the backfield, and UCF’s Myles Montgomery is a key piece of the Knights’ offensive game plan. He’s logged double-digit carries in four of the first five games and has rushed for 110 or more yards in each of the past two. With UCF’s passing game still searching for consistency, Montgomery will need to hit on explosive runs early to take pressure off the quarterback and keep the Knights competitive.
Two Key Storylines
Tayven Jackson Searching for a Spark in Big 12 Action
Since entering Big 12 play, UCF quarterback Tayven Jackson’s production has taken a noticeable dip. He’s averaging just 106 passing yards over the last two games and hasn’t thrown a touchdown since Week 3. With the Knights facing a red-hot Cincinnati team fresh off a win over a top-15 opponent, Jackson, who is listed as questionable for the matchup, will need to step up and take command of the offense to keep UCF competitive if he suits up.
Will Cincinnati’s Defense Respond After Recent Struggles?
Cincinnati may be riding a four-game win streak, but its defense has shown signs of vulnerability in recent weeks. The Bearcats have allowed over 400 total yards in back-to-back games, including a shaky outing against Iowa State despite pulling off the upset. Missed tackles and lapses in coverage have put added pressure on the offense to keep pace. As they prepare to face a UCF team that can break off explosive plays on the ground, Cincinnati’s defense will need to tighten up if it wants to maintain momentum in Big 12 play.
Prediction: Cincinnati 31, UCF 20
Cincinnati enters this matchup with momentum and a clear identity, led by a surging ground game. Pryor’s emergence has given the Bearcats a reliable spark, and at home, they should have enough to control the tempo. UCF, meanwhile, continues to search for consistency at quarterback and has struggled to slow down opposing run games. Unless the Knights can generate explosive plays early and take pressure off Jackson, it’s hard to see them keeping pace for four quarters. Look for Cincinnati to pull ahead late and secure a solid win and move to 5-1.
