The heat hasn’t cooled in Waco, and Andy Staples just turned it up another notch. In his latest hot seat rankings for On3, Staples slotted Baylor head coach Dave Aranda at No. 7, right in the middle of the danger zone for coaches across the country.
That number says a lot. It means people around the sport are watching Baylor closely. It means national voices don’t think the struggles of the last two seasons can be brushed aside anymore. And it means the leash is officially short.
Aranda’s fall from grace has been one of the more head-scratching storylines in the Big 12 over the last few years. After delivering a conference title in 2021 and riding a wave of defensive dominance, the Bears looked like they had found their guy. But things have slipped fast. Baylor went 6-7 in 2022, then completely cratered to 3-9 in 2023. In 2024, they bounced back, but ultimately, the buzz is gone. The stands are half-full. And the scoreboard hasn’t given anyone much reason to believe a turnaround is coming.
Staples didn’t hold back. He called Aranda’s situation similar to the one Neal Brown faced at West Virginia last year, a talented coach who probably knows ball, but hasn’t produced the kind of results that buy long-term security. That’s a fair comparison. Brown lost his job, and Aranda isn’t that far off either.
This is where the Big 12 backdrop makes things more complicated. The league is deeper now. There’s no easier runway to buy time. Programs like Arizona, Kansas, and Houston are clearly trending up. Baylor, on the other hand, looks stuck. And in a conference without a true juggernaut, there’s no excuse for falling behind the pack.
Aranda has always carried himself like a coach who sees the big picture. He’s smart, respected, and methodical. But in today’s version of college football, big-picture thinking only works if the week-to-week stuff doesn’t fall apart. Right now, it is.
Being seventh on a hot seat list isn’t a guarantee of anything. But it does tell you which way the momentum is moving. And if Aranda doesn’t flip it fast, Baylor’s going to have a decision to make.
