The No. 5 Texas Tech Red Raiders face the No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide in the second round of March Madness in Tampa, Fla., on Sunday. Here is our prediction, preview, odds, and key storylines to get you ready for tipoff on Sunday.
The Red Raiders (23-10) are 4-3 since losing forward JT Toppin for the season, including a quarterfinal exit in the Big 12 Tournament against Iowa State. Texas Tech defeated No. 12 seed Akron, 91-71, in the first round of the Midwest Region on Friday.
Alabama (24-9) is coming off a 90-70 win over No. 13 seed Hofstra in the first round. The Crimson Tide has won their first-round game for the third straight tournament and are seeking their third straight trip to the Sweet 16. Texas Tech is seeking its third Sweet 16 trip in the last four tournaments.
Texas Tech vs. Alabama Game Odds
The Crimson Tide enter the contest as a one-point favorite (over/under set at 165.5 points). As we moved into Sunday evening, the line flipped and Texas Tech became a one-point favorite, with the over/under moving down to 164.5 total points.
Key Storyline: Can Texas Tech Keep Shooting?
The Red Raiders are 4-3 without Toppin but there is a clear throughline to their success without him — shooting. Texas Tech has shot 50% or better in the four wins and below 50% in the three losses. Against the Zips, Texas Tech was incredible. The Red Raiders shot 64% from the field and 55% from the 3-point line. They won’t shoot that well against Alabama. But they need to clear 50%.
Match Up to Watch: Winning the Frontcourt
Without Toppin, the Red Raiders have turned to Luke Bamgboye in the starting lineup. He’s a solid rebounder but it’s going to score many points. Texas Tech doesn’t need him to. The Red Raiders need him and the rest of their forwards to slow down Alabama’s frontcourt, which includes London Jemison, Amari Allen and Aiden Sherrell. The loss of guard Aden Holloway to an off-court arrest doesn’t Alabama’s backcourt scoring. Tech’s defense has to ensure that the Crimson Tide’s frontcourt doesn’t score to its averages.
Prediction: Alabama 77, Texas Tech 72
If Texas Tech stays hot from the field the Red Raiders have a good chance to win. But consistency is hard to come by in a tournament like this, and Alabama has the length to defend Tech all over the floor. Alabama’s frontcourt will make the difference.
