Arizona plays Utah State in the second round of the NCAA Tournament later today, and we’ve got your prediction, preview and best bet from Heartland College Sports, an independent Big 12 digital media outlet covering the Big 12 Conference. Arizona beat LIU in the first round, while Utah State came back in the second half to beat Villanova on Friday. Here’s everything to know ahead of the match up.
Arizona vs. Utah State Basketball Updated Odds
Arizona has opened as a 11.5-point favorite in the game vs. Utah State, with the over/under set at 157 total points. As we move into Sunday evening the Wildcats moved up to 12.5 points, and came back down to 11.5-point favorites, with the over/under coming down to 154.5 or 155.0 total points.
Key Storyline: Can Utah State Keep Its Momentum?
Utah State was down double digits vs. Villanova in the second half before coming storming back to take the lead and win by 10 points. But does their style of play translate to being able to beat Arizona. That is unclear, considering Utah State wants to score inside, and isn’t exactly a dynamic three-point shooting team. Utah State thrives on ball movement, high-efficiency pick-and-rolls, and rapid transition scoring off turnovers. That isn’t a winning recipe against an Arizona team built to slow down that kind of offense.
Match Up to Watch: Field Goal Percentage Battle
This may sound obvious, but whoever shoots better from the field is going to win. What I mean by that is both of these teams have efficient offenses that want to beat you with easy two-point buckets. Neither team shoots the three very well. These two teams were both the best field goal shooting teams in their respective conferences, with both teams shooting over 50% from the field this season.
Prediction: Arizona 85, Utah State 70
This is a bad match up for Utah State. They aren’t going to be able to slow down, and play more efficient, than an Arizona team that is bigger, deeper and simply more talented. Utah State shot 62.5 percent in the second half against Villanova and only missed two shots in the final 12 minutes. There’s no way they’re hitting numbers like that against an Arizona defense that was second in the Big 12 in defensive field goal percentage at 39.0%. And the rebounding margin could get ugly. Utah State ranked eight in the MWC in rebounds per game, and now has to try and beat the best rebounding team in the best conference in college basketball? Not happening. Arizona rolls into the Sweet 16 and covers the spread.
