Football

Houston vs. Oregon State: Prediction, Pick and Preview

The Houston Cougars kick off the 2026 regular season by hosting Oregon State on Saturday at TDECU Stadium. It’ll be a hot, humid first matchup, but Houston is favored by 21 points as a largely familiar coaching staff takes another stab at the Big 12.

Willie Fritz and his coaching staff return for their fourth season at Houston. Offensive coordinator Slade Nagle, hired in 2024, led Houston to 71.2 plays and 394.5 yards per game last year, which finished just 10th in the Big 12. By contrast, Austin Armstrong’s defense was top 40 in the nation but is leaning on the portal to patch things together this year.

Cougars quarterback Conner Weigman is back, and he’s working at 71% of last year’s production, including standout wide receiver Amare Thomas, who led the team in receiving last year with just under 1,000 yards through the air. Thomas is a Big 12 name to watch in NFL Draft talks over the next few months, and the Beavers will certainly have their hands full with matching up with him on Saturday.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Ashton Porter, Houston

A presumed starter at defensive end, Oregon transfer Ashton Porter enters the season as a key difference-maker for the Cougar defense. He recorded 25 tackles, 3 TFLs and 1.5 sacks in his three seasons at Oregon, and appeared in all 15 games last season for the Ducks. He’ll be a guy to watch as Houston builds its pass rush in this first week against Oregon State.

AJ Newberry, Oregon State

Oregon State enters the contest with little promise on offense.

Mercer transfer Braden Atkinson is under center, and much of last year’s flash is elsewhere via the transfer portal. Senior running back AJ Newberry is in from Vanderbilt, where he touched the ball 79 times for 338 yards and six touchdowns in his career. The Beavers need a strong day by Newberry if they’re going to take advantage of Houston’s new changes up front; Brandon Mack and Halil Laufau are the biggest dudes to beat off the line of scrimmage.

PREDICTION

Houston 51, Oregon State 13

There’s little worry about Houston’s prospects in this Week 1 matchup, and it’s much more about just how interconnected and prepared this team is to come out, dominate the game’s opening drive, and establish itself as the better program. How clean can Fritz and the Cougars make this first week? How quickly do the new faces fall into place?

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