Kansas State gets its first road test of the 2026 season in Week 4 as the Wildcats head to Nippert Stadium to take on Cincinnati in the Big 12 opener for both teams.
Both teams enter Saturday night’s matchup at 3-0, but this represents a step up in importance after each navigated its non-conference schedule without a loss. Kansas State opened with blowout wins over Nicholls and Washington State before getting a tougher test from Tulane in a 31-20 victory last weekend. Cincinnati, meanwhile, enters conference play undefeated after rallying from a 21-point deficit to beat Miami (Ohio) 35-31.
Now we start finding out how seriously we should take both teams as Big 12 contenders.
For Kansas State, that means proving it can take what worked during a three-game homestand and carry it onto the road. For Cincinnati, it’s an opportunity to defend Nippert Stadium and make an early statement in conference play.
With two undefeated teams and an important 1-0 start in the Big 12 on the line, this feels like our first real measuring stick for both the Wildcats and Bearcats.
Kansas State vs. Cincinnati Odds
- Spread: Kansas State -6.5
- Over/Under: 55.5
- Moneyline: Kansas State -238/Cincinnati +195
Odds as of Monday afternoon. Odds are subject to change.
The Biggest Question: Can Cincinnati Compete Along the Lines?
Cincinnati entered the season with what looked like one of the better offensive lines in the Big 12, but the numbers through three games haven’t necessarily backed that up. The Bearcats have allowed four sacks, which ranks ninth in the Big 12, while Kansas State has yet to allow a sack this season.
The difference has been even more noticeable on the other side of the ball. Kansas State leads the Big 12 with 11 sacks through three games, while Cincinnati has seven.
That could be where Saturday’s game is decided. Can Cincinnati give JC French IV enough time to make plays and consistently establish its running game? And defensively, can the Bearcats disrupt Avery Johnson and keep Kansas State from controlling the game up front?
If Kansas State owns the line of scrimmage on both sides the way it has through three weeks, Cincinnati is going to have a difficult time pulling off the upset — even with the advantage of playing at Nippert Stadium.
Kansas State vs. Cincinnati Prediction and Pick
Prediction: Kansas State 31, Cincinnati 21
Kansas State has exceeded my wildest expectations so far. The Wildcats look like a complete team in all three phases, the Special Teams U moniker appears to be back, and they’re off to a great start against underrated competition, notably Washington State and Tulane.
Avery Johnson appears to be getting more comfortable by the week under Collin Klein, with his dual-threat ability standing out against Tulane last week when he rushed for 152 yards. Johnson has also completed 70% of his passes this season. And considering David McComb looked like Patrick Mahomes against Cincinnati last week, it makes me wonder what Johnson might do against a Nate Woody defense that ranks 13th against the pass in the Big 12.
Cincinnati needs to keep this game low-scoring, establish the ground game and control the clock to win. I don’t see it happening.
Kansas State is the tougher, deeper team, and I expect the Wildcats to wear down the Bearcats as the game progresses. K-State should also be able to stifle Cincinnati’s running game, forcing JC French IV to try to win through the air. That’s not the formula Cincinnati wants to rely on this season.
Kansas State wins. Kansas State covers.
