TCU and UCF enter Big 12 play with identical 2-1 records, but both teams still have plenty to prove as conference action begins in Orlando.
The Horned Frogs have responded well since their season-opening loss to North Carolina in Dublin, rolling past Grambling State before beating Arkansas State 31-7 last weekend. Quarterback Jaden Craig has been one of the early bright spots for Sonny Dykes, throwing for 903 yards with seven touchdowns and just one interception through three games.
UCF has taken a different path to 2-1. The Knights opened with a blowout win before falling 12-7 at Pitt, then bounced back with a 44-30 victory over Georgia State. But Scott Frost will have to navigate the start of Big 12 play without starting quarterback Alonza Barnett III, who remains sidelined with a hamstring injury.
That puts Keyone Jenkins back in the spotlight after he helped UCF pile up 304 rushing yards against Georgia State in his first start.
Now comes a much bigger test.
Can UCF lean on its running game and home-field advantage to protect its backup quarterback? Or will TCU’s offense take advantage and pick up an important road win to begin Big 12 play?
Saturday should tell us quite a bit about where both teams stand entering the heart of the conference schedule.
TCU vs. UCF Odds
- Spread: TCU -3
- Over/Under: 48.5
- Moneyline: TCU -162/UCF +136
Odds as of Wednesday afternoon. Odds are subject to change.
The Biggest Question: What Can Keyone Jenkins Do at Quarterback?
Keyone Jenkins had a QBR of 31.2 last week… against Georgia State. He was 7/17 for 86 yards, with one touchdown and one interception. Injuries at quarterback have snake bitten UCF for years now, and it may be happening again. The former FIU starter has taken plenty of snaps at the college level, but his passing game arguably saw regression from 2024 to 2025, before joining the Knights this past offseason. And the last time he played Power 4 competition was Week 2 of 2025 vs. Penn State and he had a QBR of 18.8 and was sacked twice, with an interception and 127 passing yards. Granted, his surrounding cast it much better this season, but he’s going to have to keep this TCU defense honest in the passing game, and I’m not sure if he can do it.
TCU vs. UCF Prediction and Pick
Prediction: TCU 28, UCF 17
On the other side, TCU quarterback Jaden Craig has been underrated through the last two games, leading the Big 12 in passing yards so far this season. Yes, it’s been Grambling and Arkansas State, but he needed some feel-good games after a rough start to his P4 career against UNC overseas. And UCF is fresh off a game where they gave up nearly 300 passing yards to… Georgia State (along with over 200 rushing yards). Add that to Jeremy Payne, who is a Top 5 running back in the Big 12, and he may be salivating to take on this Knights defense. And if UCF’s offense can’t give this defense a break, and they rank last in the Big 12 in Time of Possession, the Horned Frogs may likely pull away late.
TCU wins. TCU covers.
