TCU and West Virginia meet in Fort Worth for a Week 8 Big 12 matchup with both teams looking to build some momentum after picking up conference wins last weekend. The Horned Frogs are coming off a 17-6 victory over Baylor, while the Mountaineers finally broke through in Big 12 play with a wild 45-42 win over Cincinnati. Can TCU take care of business at home, or will Rich Rodriguez and West Virginia make it two straight? Here’s our prediction, pick and preview for TCU vs. West Virginia.
TCU vs. West Virginia Odds
- Spread: TCU -9.5
- Over/Under: 55.5
- Moneyline: TCU -330/West Virginia +260
Odds as of Tuesday afternoon. Odds are subject to change.
The Biggest Question: West Virginia’s Offense vs. TCU’s Defense?
This game pits TCU’s elite defense against West Virginia’s elite offense. The Horned Frogs are ranked No. 1 in scoring and total defense in the Big 12, giving up just 264 total yards per game, and 12.2 points per game. That defense was on display last week in an upset win over Baylor. Meantime, the Mountaineers did what they do best, score 40+ points and finally get in the win column in Big 12 play. WVU is No. 4 in scoring offense and No. 2 in total offense in the Big 12 Conference so far this season. And it’s not just on the ground, last week it was through the air, as Michael Hawkins Jr. threw for 464 yards and three touchdowns while adding 77 rushing yards in a win vs. Cincinnati.
TCU vs. West Virginia Prediction and Pick
Prediction: West Virginia 31, TCU 27
No doubt, the TCU defense has been solid, but how much has it been skewed by its competition thus far. The Horned Frogs are third in the FBS in scoring defense and seventh in total defense. But they’ve played inconsistent and mediocre offenses like Baylor, UCF, UNC and they took on BYU in a rain-soaked game where LJ Martin left with an injury. I think that perspective matters. They haven’t seen a Michael Hawkins or an offense that can score like WVU’s can.
Now can WVU stop anyone? That remains to be seen. Their defense is last in the Big 12, and by a wide margin. However, the Mountaineers have also already played some elite offenses like Arizona and Oklahoma State. They haven’t seen an offense like TCU’s that ranks at the bottom of the Big 12 in total offense and scoring offense.
Also, the Mountaineers might have more success defensively getting to the quarterback. WVU is in the Top 4 in sacks this season, while TCU has given up the most sacks (17) thus far in the league. In a game that will require TCU to keep up and put up points, it may open up an opportunity for the Mountaineers to actually, dare I say, make a play or two on defense that can flip this game in their favor.
Now to be transparent, he betting market disagrees. TCU opened as roughly a touchdown favorite and has been bet up to around 9.5 points at many sportsbooks, signaling confidence in the Horned Frogs despite their offensive struggles. However, I’m willing to fade that move here. TCU hasn’t faced an offense with the explosiveness of Michael Hawkins and West Virginia, and I believe the market is putting too much weight on the Mountaineers’ defensive deficiencies while overlooking TCU’s offensive limitations.
West Virginia wins. West Virginia covers.
