The biggest game of the Big 12 season has arrived, and one of the biggest questions entering Saturday’s Holy War between No. 9 BYU and No. 3 Utah is whether star running back LJ Martin will be able to make an impact.
Martin, who has missed the Cougars’ last four games with an ankle injury, is now questionable after returning to practice this week. ESPN’s Pete Thamel reports that Martin is on track to dress and attempt to play, although he could be limited depending on how he feels during pregame warmups.
That’s a potentially massive development for BYU, which has struggled to establish its rushing attack without the reigning Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year.
Meanwhile, Utah enters the rivalry showdown undefeated and sitting atop the Big 12 standings. The Utes have been the conference’s most impressive team, but the Cougars have an opportunity to change the entire championship race with a road victory.
Here’s our prediction, pick and preview for Saturday’s Holy War.
Utah vs. BYU Odds
- Spread: Utah -5.5
- Over/Under: 48.5
- Moneyline: Utah -205/BYU +168
Odds as of Tuesday afternoon. Odds are subject to change.
The Biggest Question: Can LJ Martin Make Enough of an Impact to Help BYU Upset Utah?
The biggest question entering the Holy War isn’t simply whether LJ Martin plays. It’s how effective he can be if he gets on the field.
Martin has rushed for 344 yards and three touchdowns on just 44 carries this season, averaging an impressive 7.8 yards per attempt. But BYU’s rushing attack has struggled without him, including just 47 yards on the ground against Arizona State last weekend.
Now the Cougars face a Utah defense allowing approximately 101 rushing yards per game.
Even if Martin is limited, his presence could force Utah to respect BYU’s rushing attack and take some pressure off quarterback Bear Bachmeier.
But if Martin can’t contribute much, the Cougars could find themselves relying heavily on Bachmeier against one of the toughest defenses they’ve faced all season.
For BYU to pull off the upset, getting something meaningful out of Martin could be the difference.
Utah vs. BYU Prediction and Pick
Prediction: Utah 28, BYU 20
The Utah Utes are home and undefeated, while BYU comes in limping after a road loss to UCF in double overtime, and a game that was closer than it should have been against a banged-up and young Arizona State team at home. Utah is healthy and playing some of its best football of the season. Yes, it’s the Holy War, and the rivalry seemingly is always close, but right now, there feels like there is a gap between these two teams. The LJ Martin angle is such an unknown, and I certainly can’t rely on him having a big impact right now.
Factor in the early start time (10:00 am local time), which while there is no time change obviously, seems to benefit the home team in a bigger way than people are expecting.
The last two games, BYU has been outgained 120 total yards in the rushing game. Now, the Utah Utes come into this game with the No. 3 running attack in the Big 12, with Utah averaging 227 yards per game, while Utah’s running defense is Top 5 in the Big 12, giving up 101 yards per game, and two yards per game back of the No. 2 team in the league (Baylor). So while both teams rank in the Top 10 in the country in net yards per play, the trends the last couple of weeks strongly favor Utah in this game at home.
If BYU was elite at forcing turnovers and turnover margin, I might feel differently about a close rivalry game, but they are No. 96 in the country in turnover margin. Give me Utah.
Utah wins. Utah covers.
