Sugar Bowl Preview and Prediction: Texas vs. Washington
Here is everything you need to know about the 2023 Allstate Sugar Bowl College Football Playoff Semifinal between the Texas Longhorns and the Washington Huskies.
GAME INFO
Monday, January 1, 2024; 7:45 p.m. CT; Caesars Superdome; New Orleans, Louisiana
TV: ESPN
Radio: ESPN Radio
Records: Texas (12-1); Washington (13-0)
Rankings: Texas No. 3; Washington No. 2
Series History: Texas leads, 3-2-0
Last Meeting: Washington 27, Texas 20 (2022)
Favorite: Texas (-4.0)
Fun Fact: These two teams played each other in the 2022 Valero Alamo Bowl when Michael Penix and the Huskies outlasted Quinn Ewers and the Longhorns in a 27-20 decision that came down to Texas’ inability to run the football without Bijan Robinson, garnering just 51 yards on the ground.
KEY PLAYERS
TEXAS LONGHORNS
RB CJ Baxter/RB Jaydon Blue/RB Keilan Robinson
Last season’s matchup against the Huskies came down to Texas being without its top running back, as Bijan Robinson opted out of the game. This year, Texas will once again be without its leading rusher as Jonathan Brooks is out for the season with a knee injury. However, the Longhorns’ backfield is much better equipped to handle the loss of its top rusher, and has been operating that way for several games now. In three games since Brooks’ injury, Texas has averaged 207.7 rushing yards per game and has had a different leading rusher in each contest. If that continues, Quinn Ewers should have success getting the ball downfield in the passing game.
DT T’Vondre Sweat
T’Vondre Sweat was named the winner of the Outland Trophy this past weekend, given annually to the nation’s top interior lineman, and his impact on the 2023 Texas defense can’t be overstated. The Longhorns are allowing just 80.8 rushing yards per game, which ranks third nationally, and at 6-foot-4, 362 pounds, Sweat demands a double team. That has allowed Texas’ pass rushers to get hot at times and make it difficult for offenses to sit back and throw the ball. Against one of the best OL units in America, Sweat will be a big part of the Longhorns’ defensive game plan.
WASHINGTON HUSKIES
QB Michael Penix Jr.
Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. leads the nation’s top passing offense, averaging 343.8 yards per game through the air and 13.97 yards per completion. The Huskies’ running game, on the other hand, ranks 98th nationally with 125.2 yards per game. When UW is at its best, Penix is slinging the ball downfield and letting Rome Odunze and Ja’Lynn Polk make plays after the catch. Texas’ defense has been a bit vulnerable at times in the passing game, and it’s going to take a big effort from Penix for the Huskies’ offense to keep rolling the way that it has. With that said, he showed that he’s perfectly fine doing so in the Pac-12 Championship Game against Oregon.
LB Edefuan Ulofoshio
A Butkus Award finalist and All-American in 2023, Washington linebacker Edefuan Ulofoshio is the name to know for the Huskies defensively. Ulofoshio was named as one of four captains for the 2023 season and has been all over the field for Washington this season. He ranks second on the team in tackles (83) and sacks (3.0), and has 6.0 TFLs on the year to go with an interception, a forced fumble, and two pass breakups. Ulofoshio combined with Carson Bruener and Alphonzo Tuputala gives UW one of the best linebackers corps, not only in the Pac-12, but in the country.
KEY STORYLINES
TEXAS LONGHORNS
Can the Longhorns’ pass defense keep Michael Penix Jr. from converting in late-down situations? All season long, Penix has been able to keep the Washington offense on the field with third-down conversions through the air. With Texas’ front seven having the advantage against Washington’s running attack, this game will come down to whether or not Texas’ secondary can keep Odunze and Polk from making explosive plays in the passing game. Getting after Penix is their best shot, but they’d better get to him if they’re going to give this group of receivers any sort of room to work with.
WASHINGTON HUSKIES
Can Washington affect Quinn Ewers? We saw what happens when a team can’t get to Ewers in the Big 12 Championship, as he carved up Oklahoma State for 452 yards and four touchdowns with the Pokes getting just one sack on the day. In Texas’ lone loss of the season, Oklahoma sacked Ewers five times and forced three turnovers from the Longhorns’ quarterback with two interceptions and a forced fumble. If Washington is able to get pressure on Ewers and make him uncomfortable, there’s a good chance that he could put the ball in harm’s way trying to force things in the moment.
PREDICTION: TEXAS 34, WASHINGTON 30
I think the oddsmakers have this one nailed with Texas being a four-point favorite and the O/U sitting at 63.5. Texas’ offensive line has played well down the stretch and I like what we’ve seen from the Longhorns running game post-Jonathan Brooks. That gives me confidence that they’ll have success against a Washington defense that has been good, but not great.
On the other side of the ball, I believe that Michael Penix Jr. is going to have chances to make big plays in this game with the Longhorns being aggressive defensively. However, an inability the run the football against a stout Texas front will also force Penix to make more risky throws than he’d like to. At some point late in the game, that’s going to cost Washington.
In the end, I think Texas will hold a 34-30 lead halfway through the fourth quarter and give Penix one last chance to save his team’s chances at a national championship. It will be then, that the Texas secondary finally gets the turnover they’d been so close to all day to get the ball back in the hands of their offense. From there, Texas grinds the last few minutes off the clock with a methodical running game and puts themselves into the College Football Playoff National Championship game.
