Week 9 of the 2024 college football season is here, and after a bit of separation in the Big 12 last weekend, we’ve got some very important matchups coming.
All seven games on the slate this weekend are crammed into the afternoon and evening windows, so it might take multiple screens in order to keep up with everything going on.
It’s been a chaotic season thus far, with underdogs faring incredibly well through the first eight weeks — going 19-13 against the spread and 15-17 straight up.
This week, the average line in Big 12 games is 5.5 points, with three games right at or under a field goal. Here’s who will win each game, why they’ll win, and what our predicted final score is.
11 BYU (7-0, 4-0) at UCF (3-4, 1-3)
Saturday, Oct. 26, 2024 | 2:30 PM (CT) | FBC Mortgage Stadium, Orlando, FL | UCF (-2.5)
Traveling across two time zones to play a football game is tough, let alone going from a mountain climate to just an hour or so from the nearest beach. However, UCF being favored by just under a field goal after being a 14-point underdog at Iowa State last week feels off to me. The line suggests that BYU would be favored by around a half-point on a neutral field, and around 3.5 points at home.
Vegas wasn’t built on sportsbooks losing money, and they are right more often than not. However, the Big 12 has been almost impossible to predict in 2024. Maybe this is just based on the idea that BYU should probably lose a game somewhere along the way and on the road at UCF is the most likely pitfall, but I can’t buy it. Give me the Cougars to win on the road.
BYU 28, UCF 24
Oklahoma State (3-4, 0-4) at Baylor (3-4, 1-3)
Saturday, Oct. 26, 2024 | 2:30 PM (CT) | McLane Stadium, Waco, TX | BAY (-7.0)
Somehow, we’re entering Week 9 of the season and Mike Gundy and the Oklahoma State Cowboys are still looking for their first win in Big 12 play. A few weeks ago, this game looked like it might be one that the Pokes could go into feeling pretty good about their chances, but now that it’s arrived, Baylor is the second-biggest favorite of the week in conference play. Last week, Baylor churned out 529 yards of offense, including 255 yards (7.7 ypc) on the ground. That doesn’t bode well for an OSU defense that is giving up 298.3 rushing yards per game in Big 12 play.
While I’m not incredibly confident about it, I’m going to take Dave Aranda and the Bears to capitalize on their offensive explosion from a week ago and turn in another good day against a struggling Oklahoma State team. The Bears win another one and push the Pokes to 0-5 in Big 12 play.
BAY 34, OSU 27
Texas Tech (5-2, 3-1) at TCU (4-3, 2-2)
Saturday, Oct. 26, 2024 | 2:30 PM (CT) | Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX | TCU (-6.5)
Heading into last week, Texas Tech appeared to be rounding into shape as a Big 12 contender after a disappointing early season loss to Washington State. Then, last week, they showed the same cracks in their armor defensively as Baylor carved up the Red Raider’s defense in a blowout. This week, Texas Tech heads to Fort Worth to take on a TCU team that has scored just 22 points total in their last two games. However, those games came against Utah (16.4 ppg) and Houston (23.6 ypg) — the No. 2 and No. 8 scoring defenses in the Big 12.
This week, the Horned Frogs will face the Big 12’s worst scoring defense (36.1 ppg), which means Josh Hoover should be able to turn it loose. The under for this game isn’t safe at 66.5, and while I don’t know if they’ll cover the 6.5, I do like TCU to pick up a win at home.
TCU 38, TTU 34
West Virginia (3-4, 2-2) at Arizona (3-4, 1-3)
Saturday, Oct. 26, 2024 | 6:00 PM (CT) | Arizona Stadium, Tucson, AZ | ARIZ (-3.5)
I’ve waited all season long to see Arizona’s offense resemble the unit we saw torching Pac-12 defenses a year ago, but it just hasn’t come to fruition. Noah Fifita has struggled (9 TD, 10 INT) with turnovers this season, and their inconsistency in the run game has caused some issues. Meanwhile, West Virginia is coming off a blowout loss to Kansas State in which it lost three key players, including starting quarterback Garrett Greene.
I would lean West Virginia in this game if Greene were back and close to 100%, but I have my doubts that we’ll see him. That puts the WVU offense in the hands of Nicco Marchiol. That, combined with it being his first start of the year and on the road, I have to give the edge to Arizona in what could be an ugly football game.
ARIZ 23, WVU 17
Utah (4-3, 1-3) at Houston (2-5, 1-3)
Saturday, Oct. 26, 2024 | 3:00 PM (CT) | TDECU Stadium, Houston, TX | UTAH (-3.5)
It’s hard to put into words just how far the expectations for Utah have fallen since the beginning of October. The Utes are riding a three-game losing streak into this week and have looked nothing like the team we expected them to at the beginning of the year. Cam Rising is out for the season (again) and Isaac Wilson is at the controls. There’s not a lot to love about what Utah has done lately, but they do have a winnable game on the road this week — which are hard to come by in the Big 12.
Houston is coming off a blowout loss to Kansas and — aside from their surprising 30-19 upset at TCU — has not been competitive in Big 12 play. Zeon Chriss is expected to be available for this game, and if he’s able to go it will make this game much more interesting than Utah fans will like. These two defenses are pretty stout (O/U 36.5), but I think Chriss is the more dynamic player at quarterback, at least right now. Give me the Coogs in a close one.
HOU 20, UTAH 16
Kansas (2-5, 1-3) at 16 Kansas State (6-1, 3-1)
Saturday, Oct. 26, 2024 | 7:00 PM (CT) | Bill Snyder Family Stadium, Manhattan, KS | KSU (-10)
During the preseason, this was supposed to be the biggest Sunflower Showdown that we’d seen in years. Both KU and K-State were supposed to come into this game ranked and looking like Big 12 contenders, but only one of them has held up that end of the bargain. Kansas just won its first game against an FBS opponent this season — and it’s first game since August 29. Meanwhile, the Wildcats appear to be rounding into form after their loss to BYU, which looks like an aberration in retrospect.
The Jayhawks would love nothing more than to play spoiler here, but it’ll be a tall task to keep Avery Johnson and the K-State offense under wraps. I like the Wildcats to extend their winning streak over KU to 16 games, and they cover in the process.
KSU 38, KU 23
Cincinnati (5-2, 3-1) at Colorado (5-2, 3-1)
Saturday, Oct. 26, 2024 | 9:15 PM (CT) | Folsom Field, Boulder, CO | COLO (-5.5)
You’ll have to stay up late to catch the best Big 12 game of the weekend, but it’ll be well worth the wait to watch Cincinnati and Colorado square off. The Bearcats and Buffaloes come into this game with identical 5-2 record, and 3-1 records in Big 12 play. The winner of this game will be, at worst, tied for third place in the Big 12 with four games left. Additionally, the winner of this game will become bowl eligible after each of them missed the postseason a year ago. Colorado had some preseason hype, but was widely seen as more flash than anything else. However, they’ve found a way to play winning football down the stretch and appear to be getting better along the lines of scrimmage. Meanwhile, Cincinnati came into the year picked to finish among the bottom two teams in the Big 12 after a complete overhaul of the roster in Scott Satterfield’s second season. That, however, has not been the case, as Brennan Sorsby and the UC offense has been consistent and effective, while the defense remains vastly underrated.
This game should exceed the hype and I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if there were several lead changes. Colorado is the more talented team, and they’ll have a raucous home crowd behind them. Then again, Cincinnati’s protected their quarterback better and has been the more disciplined team to this point. This one was tough to pick, but in a game that should come down to the wire, I’ve got to go with the home team.
COLO 28, CIN 27
