Most of the time when I put together my game week previews and predictions, individual and team statistics help give me an idea of what may happen by showing where each team has an advantage and therefore give me an idea of what each team has to do to win.
That strategy is proving extraordinarily difficult when comparing Kansas State and their opponent this Saturday, as the Arizona State Sun Devils travel to Manhattan for a Saturday night showdown.
The teams are eerily similar through their first nine games. Take a look.
Wildcats or Sun Devils? Who Can Tell…
Statistical Comparison
Offensive Statistics (Big 12 Rank)
Scoring Offense
Kansas State: 31.2 ppg (9th)
Arizona State: 31.6 ppg (8th)
ADV: Arizona State (+0.4 ppg)
Total Offense
Kansas State: 422.6 ypg (4th)
Arizona State: 399.6 (10th)
ADV: Kansas State (+23.0 ypg)
Rushing Offense
Kansas State: 203.8 ypg (3rd)
Arizona State: 198.0 ypg (4th)
ADV: Kansas State (+5.8 ypg)
Passing Offense (Big 12 Rank)
Kansas State: 214.2 ypg (10th)
Arizona State: 201.6 ypg (14th)
ADV: Kansas State (+12.6 ypg)
Defensive Statistics (Big 12 Rank)
Scoring Defense
Kansas State: 21.7 ppg (4th)
Arizona State: 23.8 ppg (8th)
ADV: Kansas State (-2.1 ppg)
Total Defense
Kansas State: 329.7 ypg (4th)
Arizona State: 330.8 (5th)
ADV: Kansas State (-1.1 ypg)
Rushing Defense
Kansas State: 99.4 ypg (1st)
Arizona State: 118.8 ypg (3rd)
ADV: Kansas State (-19.4 ypg)
Passing Defense (Big 12 Rank)
Kansas State: 230.2 ypg (10th)
Arizona State: 212.0 ypg (6th)
ADV: Arizona State (-18.2 ypg)
Running Back Comparison
#33 DJ Giddens, RB, Kansas State (2024)
- Carries: 162 (5th)
- Rush Yards: 995 rushing yards (4th)
- Rush TD: 5 (11th)
- Yards Per Carry: 6.1 (6th)
- Yards Per Game: 110.6 (4th)
- Receiving Stats: 17 rec, 213 yds, 1 TD, 12.5 ypc
#4 Cam Skattebo, RB, Arizona State (2024)
- Carries: 173 (3rd)
- Rush Yards: 1,001 (3rd)
- Rush TD: 11 (2nd)
- Yards Per Carry: 5.8 (11th)
- Yards Per Game: 125.1 (3rd)
- Receiving Stats: 27 rec, 404 yds, 2 TD, 15.0 ypc
quarterBack Comparison
#2 Avery Johnson, QB, Kansas State (2024)
- Completion: 61.0% (9th)
- Passing Yards: 210.2 ypg (10th)
- Passing Touchdowns: 17 (5th)
- Interceptions: 7 (T-6th)
- Pass Efficiency: 141.0 (8th)
#10 Sam Leavitt, QB, Arizona State (2024)
- Completion: 61.2% (8th)
- Passing Yards: 203.9 ypg (11th)
- Passing Touchdowns: 14 (10th)
- Interceptions: 4 (T-1st)
- Pass Efficiency: 146.2 (6th)
Record Comparison
Kansas State: 7-2 (4-2 Big 12)
| DATE | OPPONENT | RESULT | W-L (BIG 12) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug. 31 | vs. UT Martin | W, 41-6 | 1-0 (0-0) |
| Sep. 7 | @ Tulane | W, 34-27 | 2-0 (0-0) |
| Sep. 13 | vs. Arizona | W, 31-7 | 3-0 (0-0) |
| Sep. 21 | @ BYU | L, 38-9 | 3-1 (0-1) |
| Sep. 28 | vs. Oklahoma State | W, 42-20 | 4-1 (1-1) |
| Oct. 12 | @ Colorado | W, 31-28 | 5-1 (2-1) |
| Oct. 19 | @ West Virginia | W, 45-18 | 6-1 (3-1) |
| Oct. 26 | vs. Kansas | W, 29-27 | 7-1 (4-1) |
| Nov. 2 | @ Houston | L, 24-19 | 7-2 (4-2) |
| Nov. 16 | vs. Arizona State | — | — |
| Nov. 23 | vs. Cincinnati | — | — |
| Nov. 30 | @ Iowa State | — | — |
Arizona State: 7-2 (4-2 Big 12)
| DATE | OPPONENT | RESULT | W-L (BIG 12) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug. 31 | vs. Wyoming | W, 48-7 | 1-0 (0-0) |
| Sep. 7 | vs. Mississippi State | W, 30-23 | 2-0 (0-0) |
| Sep. 13 | @ Texas State | W, 31-28 | 3-0 (0-0) |
| Sep. 21 | @ Texas Tech | L, 30-22 | 3-1 (0-1) |
| Oct. 5 | vs. Kansas | W, 35-31 | 4-1 (1-1) |
| Oct. 11 | vs. Utah | W, 27-19 | 5-1 (2-1) |
| Oct. 19 | @ Cincinnati | L, 24-14 | 5-2 (2-2) |
| Nov. 2 | @ Oklahoma State | W, 42-21 | 6-2 (3-2) |
| Nov. 9 | vs. UCF | W, 35-31 | 7-2 (4-2) |
| Nov. 16 | @ Kansas State | — | — |
| Nov. 23 | vs. BYU | — | — |
| Nov. 30 | @ Arizona | — | — |
Conclusion
These two teams couldn’t have been more closely matched if you’d drawn it up in a lab. All this research does is tell me not to bet a penny on this game.
However, Vegas thinks differently. Some how, oddsmakers have K-State as an eight-point favorite.
Why? Who knows.
I have no idea what will happen on Saturday, but I will give a prediction anyway.
Prediction: K-State 31, Arizona State 30
