Big 12 Football Tiebreaker Scenarios: What to Know With Three Weeks Remaining

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The 2024 Big 12 Championship race is headed toward a photo finish as we head into Week 12 with two teams out front — but not by much.

BYU (9-0, 6-0) enters the week with the only undefeated record in Big 12 play, while Colorado carries in a 5-1 mark with three games left to go. Behind them, a slew of two-loss teams are just waiting for their opportunity.

As the Big 12 announced on social media Wednesday, there are just 12 teams remaining in the race to Arlington, and after this week, that list will dwindle once again.

Last year, we saw a near-nightmare scenario at the end of Big 12 play and there was a lot of drama surrounding how the tiebreaker process would play out.

 

So, surely we have a more clearly defined process for crowning a champion this season, right? Let’s take a look at the policies, as first reported by ESPN’s Heather Dinich.

At the beginning of the 2024 season, the Big 12 announced the steps it will use to determine the top two teams if there is a tie.

Related: Who Will Win Each Big 12 Football Game in Week 12?

Big 12 Tiebreaker Policies (2024)

1. The tied teams will be compared based on their head-to-head record during the season.
   • (or)
2. The tied teams will be compared based on win percentage against all common conference opponents.
   • (or)
3. The tied teams will be compared based on win percentage against the next highest-placed common opponent in the standings (based on the record in all games played within the conference) proceeding through the standings.
   • (or)
4. The tied teams will be compared based on combined win percentage in conference games of conference opponents.
   • (or)
5. The tied teams will be compared based on total number of wins in a 12-game season.
   • (or)
6. The representative will be chosen based on highest ranking by SportSource Analytics (team rating score metric) following the last weekend of regular-season games.
   • (or)
7. The representative will be chosen by a coin toss.

 

So, What Will it Look Like?

Let’s take a look at the remaining schedule for the top two teams in the conference standings ahead of Week 12, as well as their projected record at the end of the season.

 

Based on those projections, the Big 12 Championship race would end nice and tidy with BYU and Colorado both getting into the game as the only one-loss teams in the league.

However, should chaos ensue — it probably will in this league — and either one of those teams end the year with two conference losses, here’s the group of other teams that have a reasonable chance to make it to Arlington.

So, in this scenario we have the following things happening:

• BYU drops a toss-up at Arizona State
• Colorado drops a toss-up at Kansas
• Iowa State wins out
• Kansas State, Arizona State, West Virginia all go 2-1

Here’s what the final standings would look like for the top six teams:

1. BYU | 11-1 (8-1)*
T-2. Colorado| 10-2 (7-2)
T-2. Iowa State | 10-2 (7-2)
T-3. Kansas State | 9-3 (6-3)
T-3. Arizona State | 9-3 (6-3)
T-3. West Virginia | 7-5 (6-3)

BYU would be considered the regular season champion as the only team to finish with an 8-1 record in Big 12 play, therefore making them the home team in Arlington.

In second place, we’ve got a two-way tie between Iowa State and Colorado, both of which end the season with a 7-2 record in Big 12 play, and since the two teams didn’t face each other in the regular season, we’d have to go through the tiebreaker process to decide who will face BYU for the Big 12 title.

 

If it comes down to this, things are going to get awfully chippy between these two fan bases. At first glance, the obvious solution would be that Iowa State beat Kansas State, while Colorado lost to the same K-State team, so ISU would advance, right? Not quite.

The second tiebreaker used in this year’s protocol actually compares each team’s winning percentage against all common conference opponents.

Colorado and Iowa State have a total of seven common opponents: Baylor, UCF, Kansas State, Cincinnati, Texas Tech, Utah, and Kansas.

In this scenario, Colorado would have gone 6-1 against those combined opponents, while Iowa State went 5-2, with losses to Texas Tech and Kansas. So, despite having the best win of the two teams, Iowa State would be left out as the third place teamand Colorado would advance.

To decide 4th-6th, Kansas State would have a head-to-head win over both Arizona State and West Virginia, so they would get fourth. Then, West Virginia and Arizona State would be left to differentiate. Despite Arizona State having the better record, West Virginia would actually get the nod for fifth place, thanks to their record against common opponents.

Tiebreakers are never pretty, and someone is going to end up feeling that they got the short end of the stick. However, this is at least much clearer than the picture that we got last year.

This final stretch of the race to Arlington is shaping up to be one to remember. The Big 12 Championship Game is set Saturday, Dec. 7 at 11 a.m. CT from AT&T Stadium on ABC.