What’s going on in the Big 12 and beyond? I expand and explain every Sunday in Postscripts at Heartland College Sports, your home for independent Big 12 coverage.
This week, I think it’s possible we’re debating the wrong thing about the College Football Playoff. Plus, other odds and ends from the week.
The CFP Debate is All Wrong
On Tuesday night, the College Football Playoff committee will release its next Top 25. I won’t be watching. I’ll wait for it to drop on social media and then write whatever needs to be written.
Last Tuesday’s debate was nauseating. ESPN’s analysts spent 10 minutes trying to convince everyone that Indiana couldn’t lose “too badly” to Ohio State or risk not making the CFP at all. Much of the conversations were about “good losses” and not actually winning the game. The SEC discourse about worthy three-loss teams was gross and pandering.
Even the committee’s logic about dropping BYU eight spots was ridiculous. Warde Manuel’s comments were, to paraphrase, “Well, we finally get to drop them because they lost a game. Finally.” I’m sure the same logic will apply to Indiana this Tuesday. Here’s his comment about BYU during the teleconference.
I’m breaking out this gem: “Look, we give a lot of credit when teams win, and so we don’t penalize teams for winning close …”
But, yeah, we’ll send them to the woodshed if they lose. And the committee did.
I spent a few days back in Nacogdoches, Texas, for basketball and football at my alma mater, Stephen F. Austin. Since I was off from the day job, I had a rant all set up for Postscripts. But I needed to do one more thing — a little research.
My original thesis was along the lines of this — winning is so hard. It’s so hard to go undefeated, much less 10 or 11 games, that the current lines of debate just aren’t valuing that. It’s hard to win ten games in a power conference, regardless of your schedule. So, value that first, right?
So, I went back and looked at the last three seasons and put together a list of every power conference team that won 10 or more games BEFORE the CFP committee selected the playoff teams (after the conference championship games but before the bowl games started). For this exercise, I did not include Notre Dame (the Fighting Irish can only get in as an at-large team).
How many power-conference teams do you think won 10 or more games before the CFP field was unveiled? I have to admit, I thought it was, at most, eight. Perhaps the average would be eight?
Nope, I was wrong. The number was 13.
Yep, that’s right. In the last three seasons, 13 power conference teams won 10 or more games before the CFP field was released. That’s less than 20% of the power conference teams.
As I’m sure you, dear reader, are aware, only 12 teams are invited to this year’s party. So if the past is prologue, at least ONE team with double-digit wins is going home unhappy on Selection Sunday.
And, you know what? Maybe that team ends up being Indiana. I don’t know. But shouldn’t it be because we have a surplus of teams that have double-digit wins and NOT because the committee is trying to shoehorn in a nine-win team over one of them, regardless of what conference it plays in?
With that research done, I was curious — how many 10-win teams are we liable to end up with this year? Let’s break it down:
ACC — up to three.
Big 12 — up to three.
Big Ten — four.
SEC — up to three.
That’s 13. Count Notre Dame, which already has ten wins, and that’s 14.
Plus, as you know, at least one non-power conference champion will be invited, most likely Boise State.
So, should ten wins be where the conversation starts? If you value winning, I think it should. I don’t think the average college football fan gets how tough it is to win ten games in a season. I mean, look at the Group of 5 teams. Boise State is there. Army, Tulane, and Louisiana could get there this weekend. That will be it.
If I weren’t so annoyed with how certain media outlets appear to treat certain conferences, this would be a fascinating case study. The FCS playoff field isn’t a good comparison. Conference champions get a bye, and it’s a 24-team field.
Before, with a four-team field, one loss put you on incredibly thin ice. Two losses,s and you were done. Only one two-loss team got into either the BCS or the CFP (Les Miles’ LSU team with Matt Flynn at quarterback, if you’re wondering).
This year, the committee will debate the merits of one-loss, two-loss, and three-loss at-large teams. And, while I won’t dispute that some schedules aren’t created equal, why would we punish teams for excelling with a schedule in which 75% of the games were scheduled for them?
I won’t be watching on Tuesday because I think they’re debating the wrong thing. This group seems to value good losses over winning, and in an unprecedented format with some of the most fun we’ve had as college football fans in years, it’s the wrong argument.
ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED?
This week’s power conference tie-breakers, courtesy of Yahoo Sports’ Ross Dellenger:
Yeah, that’s about right. So, yeah, the Big 12 may only get one team in the CFP. But, hey, this has got to be the most enjoyable Big 12 season ever, right?
By the way, here’s a good list of the tiebreaker scenarios.
And, if you’re so inclined, it’s all Kansas’ fault because the Jayhawks just want to go bowling.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE RELIGION
Come for SEC commissioner Greg Sankey politicking for his member schools. Stay for him, inadvertently making BYU’s case based on the strength of the schedule.
WRAPPING IT UP
Here’s our Pete Mundo wrapping up another chaotic week of Big 12 football. Just one more week to go. Let’s have some fun.
You can find Matthew Postins on Twitter @PostinsPostcard.
