West Virginia and Iowa State both enter Week 5 looking to bounce back after disappointing starts to Big 12 play.
The Mountaineers fell to 3-1 after a 41-24 home loss to Oklahoma State, despite piling up 467 yards of offense. Iowa State is also coming off a frustrating home loss, falling 31-17 to Utah after digging itself a 24-3 first-half hole. Both teams are now 0-1 in conference play.
That makes Saturday’s matchup in Ames an important early-season game for two teams that don’t want to start Big 12 play 0-2.
Can West Virginia rebound on the road, or will Iowa State get back on track at Jack Trice Stadium?
West Virginia vs. Iowa State Odds
- Spread: Iowa State -3.5
- Over/Under: 52.5
- Moneyline: Iowa State -154/West Virginia +128
Odds as of Tuesday afternoon. Odds are subject to change.
The Biggest Question: Which Running Attack Has the Better Game?
These teams are built similarly on offense. They have dual-threat quarterbacks who want to win it on the ground, to then set up the passing game. West Virginia has been the more effective team on this front to start the season. WVU is averaging 295 yards per game on the ground, while Iowa State is 10th in the Big 12 at 180 yards per game.
Here’s another item to watch: Iowa State’s offense is the least-efficient offense in the Big 12 Conference, but they’re going up against the least-efficient defense in the Big 12 in West Virginia. And given the fact that we are only one month into the season and the Cyclones have already played two top defenses in Iowa and West Virginia, this stat is probably skewed against Iowa State. We’ll get a much better feel for what this offense is capable of on Saturday.
West Virginia vs. Iowa State Prediction and Pick
Prediction: West Virginia 33, Iowa State 30
This game feels destined for a lot of points. Iowa State’s offense will be ready for a break out, and West Virginia hasn’t really proven it can stop anyone with any kind of consistency, yet. But, I have to go with the Mountaineers here, who are fresh off a loss at home, and will be re-focused going on the road. I’d actually be more concerned about WVU had they won last week against the Cowboys. A loss helps them going into this match up. And while Iowa State is going to be wanting to get into the win column, I don’t think their firepower can ultimately match the Mountaineers.
Iowa State did hold Utah’s running quarterbacks Devon Dampier and Byrd Ficklin in check last week, but they also didn’t really need to go to that well on Saturday. WVU is going to go back to Michael Hawkins Jr. on the ground, and it will be the Mountaineers getting it done late for a road win against a worn-down Iowa State defense as the game progresses.
As for the odds, for what it’s worth, the betting market made a major early move toward Iowa State, pushing the Cyclones from roughly a two-point favorite to as high as -3.5. But there are signs of buyback on West Virginia at the higher number, with DraftKings reporting 90% of the spread handle on the Mountaineers at +3. I’m with them here.
West Virginia wins. West Virginia covers.
