Arizona and Cincinnati meet in Week 5 in one of the more intriguing Big 12 matchups of the weekend, with both teams coming off impressive conference wins.
Cincinnati is suddenly 4-0 after knocking off Kansas State 31-26, continuing what has become one of the biggest surprise starts in the Big 12. Arizona also enters with momentum after rallying from an early 14-point deficit to beat Washington State 34-24, with Noah Fifita throwing four touchdown passes in the comeback.
Now the Wildcats get set for a tough game in their Big 12 home opener.
Is Cincinnati ready to establish itself as a legitimate Big 12 contender, or can Arizona go hand the Bearcats their first loss?
Arizona vs. Cincinnati Odds
- Spread: Arizona -7.5
- Over/Under: 55.5
- Moneyline: Arizona -260/Cincinnati +210
Odds as of Tuesday afternoon. Odds are subject to change.
The Biggest Question: Arizona Passing Game vs. Cincinnati?
Cincinnati’s passing defense has been spotty at times this season. Last week against K-State, they basically forced Avery Johnson to beat them in the pocket. He couldn’t do it. Noah Fifita is a much better passer with better weapons than Kansas State. The Bearcats defense ranks 14th in the Big 12 in passing yards allowed per game, while the Wildcats have the second-best passing offense in the Big 12, behind only Oklahoma State.
And as much as Cincinnati’s defense has made strides, the unit ranks 85th in college football, and 15th in the Big 12, in yards allowed per play. The Bearcats are going to have to figure out how to slow down a passing attack that can be lethal. However, the Wildcats have gotten off to slow starts in each of their past two games, and that’s on OC Seth Doege to try and figure out this week.
Arizona vs. Cincinnati Prediction and Pick
Prediction: Arizona 38, Cincinnati 27
One part of this match up that needs to be pointed out: The 11:00 p.m. ET kick off is brutal for Cincinnati making the long road trip, with a body clock that will be playing well into the early-morning hours. That has to have some kind of impact on this game. It’s not fair to Cincinnati, but such is life in the 16-team, coast-to-coast Big 12 Conference.
Now as for the game itself, I want to buy into all the hype around Cincinnati, especially with the way the offensive line looked, blasting K-State off the ball on Saturday. However, Arizona’s front seven has been much improved this year, and currently ranks third in the Big 12 in rushing defense. Can JC French really go on the road and beat a team through the air? Especially against an Arizona team that is going to put up points at home. Cincinnati will be in this game at halftime, but it will be Arizona wearing them down in the second half for a comfortable double-digit win.
Also of note: Cincinnati is drawing overwhelming support from bettors, with 90% of tickets and 93% of the money backing the Bearcats. However, sportsbooks have moved Arizona from a 7-point favorite to as high as 7.5, a sign that respected money may be backing the Wildcats despite the lopsided public action on Cincinnati.
Arizona wins. Arizona covers.
