Arizona State and Baylor meet in Week 5 with both teams looking to build some momentum as the Big 12 race starts to take shape.
Baylor enters the matchup coming off a much-needed 23-13 win over Colorado, as the Bears bounced back from their loss to Auburn and picked up their first Big 12 victory of the season. Arizona State, meanwhile, gets another opportunity to prove it belongs in the conference race after an up-and-down opening month.
Now the Sun Devils return home for a matchup that could tell us plenty about both teams.
Can Arizona State take care of business in Tempe, or will Baylor build off last week’s win and grab a big Big 12 road victory?
Arizona State vs. Baylor Odds
- Spread: Arizona State -4.5
- Over/Under: 48.5
- Moneyline: Arizona State -178/Baylor +146
Odds as of Tuesday afternoon. Odds are subject to change.
The Biggest Question: Which Defense Makes the Big Play?
Both of these defenses have been really stout so far this season. Baylor ranks 18th in college football in yards allowed per play, while Arizona State ranks 35th in the nation. Baylor ranks first in the Big 12 in sacks in the Big 12 with 15 in four games. New defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman has done a really solid job revamping a Baylor defense that was inept last season. Arizona State’s defense has been one of the best against the pass, which sets up an interesting match up against a Baylor passing offense that has been one of the best in the Big 12 so far this season. And now that DJ Lagway is back and healthy, he is likely only going to get better with each passing week. So is it a big strip sack, an interception, a pick six, and forced fumble? Which defense makes the big play to turn this game?
Arizona State vs. Baylor Prediction and Pick
Prediction: Arizona State 27, Baylor 17
Arizona State is fresh off a bye week following a grueling nine-day stretch where they left Tempe, went to College Station to play Texas A&M, and then went overseas to take on Kansas. The Sun Devils are back home and rested, while Baylor is playing its fifth-straight game to start the season after trips to Atlanta, and then three-straight home games, including last week’s win vs. Colorado.
Baylor’s offense is currently ranked 15th in efficiency in the Big 12, which does not bode well for this game against an Arizona State defense that has been underrated and sneaky good so far. Owen Long, Lyrik Rawls and Martell Hughes lead a defense that will become known as one of the better in the Big 12 starting this weekend. Meantime, Baylor’s defense has not been challenged by a passing attack like it will see this weekend against the Sun Devils. I expect a big game from Cutter Boley that leads to Arizona State picking up a comfortable win.
Also of note: Despite roughly 80% of tickets backing Baylor, Arizona State has held firm as a 3.5- to 4.5-point favorite across the market. The disconnect between ticket count and money percentage suggests larger wagers are landing on the Sun Devils, making Arizona State one of the more intriguing sharp-money sides on the Week 5 Big 12 slate.
Arizona State wins. Arizona State covers.
