The Oklahoma State Cowboys and Iowa State Cyclones meet on Saturday night in Ames with the two programs heading in very different directions entering Week 9.
Oklahoma State continues to emerge as one of the surprise contenders in the Big 12 after rolling past Colorado 57-24 last weekend. Drew Mestemaker threw for 386 yards and four touchdowns as the Cowboys piled up 598 yards of offense and scored 34 unanswered points in the second half.
Iowa State, meanwhile, is searching for answers after an ugly 39-3 loss at Arizona dropped the Cyclones to 3-4 overall and 1-3 in Big 12 play. Iowa State made a quarterback change during the loss, replacing Jaylen Raynor with Connor Moberly, but neither was able to get the offense going.
Still, a Saturday night trip to Jack Trice Stadium is never one to overlook, and Oklahoma State can’t afford a slip-up as it tries to remain in the thick of the Big 12 Championship race.
Here is everything you need to know about Oklahoma State vs. Iowa State in Week 9, including the latest odds, our prediction and game pick.
Oklahoma State vs. Iowa State Odds
- Spread: Oklahoma State -8.5
- Over/Under: 58.5
- Moneyline: Oklahoma State -330/Iowa State +265
Odds as of Tuesday afternoon. Odds are subject to change.
The Biggest Question: What Does Iowa State do vs. Oklahoma State Pass Attack?
Last week, we watched Iowa State get torched by Noah Fifta and the Arizona Wildcats in a 39-3 loss. Enter: Drew Mestemaker, who is getting an incredible amount of hype as the season progresses, and is suddenly being talked about as a high-end first round NFL Draft pick in 2027. The Cowboys have the top passing attack in the Big 12, averaging over 340 yards per game. And on the other side, Iowa State is giving up 8.0 yards per pass, which is second-worst in the Big 12, only ranking ahead of West Virginia (who Oklahoma State dropped 41 on). And Iowa State is just not built to play from behind and get into a shootout against anyone. So what’s the plan?
Oklahoma State vs. Iowa State Prediction and Pick
Prediction: Oklahoma State 38, Iowa State 20
The short answer is that I don’t think the Cyclones can, or will, have an answer to Oklahoma State’s offense. Oklahoma State ranks in the Top 10 in net yards per play, while Iowa State ranks 111th in the country. The Cyclones’ offense ranks 68th in yards per play, and 118th in defensive yards per play allowed. Now in fairness, Iowa State has faced a brutal schedule, with some of the top offenses in the Big 12 like Utah, West Virginia and Arizona. But still, what makes one think that Oklahoma State will be any different? In fact, it may only end up being worse.
Oklahoma State’s defense has been up and down at times, just look at the first vs. second half last week against Colorado. However, even with a defensive efficiency that ranks 14th in the Big 12, Iowa State’s ranks 15th. And it’s the OSU offense that is the most efficient offense in the league, while Iowa State’s offense ranks 15th.
The betting market has shown some respect for Iowa State, nudging the spread from Oklahoma State -10 to around -9. But even after that movement, oddsmakers are still asking the Cyclones to defend their home field as more than a touchdown underdog. That’s a significant statement about the gap between these teams. If Oklahoma State plays to its offensive potential, I believe the Cowboys eventually create enough explosive plays to pull away in the second half.
Oh, and OSU is 6-1 against the spread, tied for second-best in the nation, while Iowa State is 2-4-1.
Oklahoma State wins. Oklahoma State covers.
