The TCU Horned Frogs and Kansas Jayhawks meet on Saturday in Fort Worth in a matchup between two teams desperately trying to turn their seasons around.
Both teams enter Week 9 at 3-4 overall and 1-3 in Big 12 play, but Kansas finally has some momentum after beating Baylor 25-24 for its first conference win of the season. Meanwhile, TCU is looking to bounce back after a disappointing 24-20 home loss to West Virginia.
The matchup to watch will be the Kansas offense against one of the best defenses in the Big 12. TCU enters the weekend allowing just 13.9 points and 264.3 yards per game, both of which lead the conference. Kansas, however, is coming off a game in which Dylan Edwards rushed for 156 yards and Isaiah Marshall accounted for three touchdowns against Baylor.
With both teams sitting below .500 entering November, the margin for error is disappearing quickly if either hopes to get to a bowl game.
Here is everything you need to know about TCU vs. Kansas in Week 9, including the latest odds, our prediction and game pick.
TCU vs. Kansas Odds
- Spread: TCU -5.5
- Over/Under: 46.5
- Moneyline: TCU -210/Kansas +172
Odds as of Tuesday afternoon. Odds are subject to change.
The Biggest Question: The Hot Seat for the Loser?
The reality is that this game is incredibly important for both head coaches. Lance Leipold can breath a sigh of relief after getting just his second Big 12 win in his last 10 games last week vs. Baylor in comeback fashion, a game that led to Aranda getting fired on Sunday. Meantime, Sonny Dykes is feeling the heat in Fort Worth after losing to West Virginia and falling to 1-3 in Big 12 play. Now, you have national broadcasters like Dan Patrick speculating on a Lincoln Riley-to-TCU possibility on his radio show this week. The only way for Dykes to silence the rumors is to win. And a loss to a Kansas team that is still a bottom-of-the-Big 12 team would be absolutely brutal for him.
TCU vs. Kansas Prediction and Pick
Prediction: Kansas 23, TCU 20
For a second-straight week I am calling for an upset in Fort Worth. I just don’t see it with TCU. Their offense remains inept, and while I like their defense, it’s being asked to do too much. Kansas’ defense has been really good against the pass, and not as good against the run. Well, TCU still has no offensive identity, and after starting the season with plans to establish a more effective running game, they are back to passing the ball to try and win, ranking third in the Big 12 in passing yard per game. However, it’s not translating to points, as they rank 15th in the Big 12 in scoring. Now they have to go up against a Kansas pass defense that ranks third in the Big 12 in passing yards allowed per game.
Looking at some advanced resume analytics, TCU and Kansas have similar profiles. TCU ranks 78th in Strength of Record, 44th in ESPN FPI and 51st in Strength of Schedule. Kansas comes in at 81st in Strength of Record, 55th in ESPN FPI and 44th in Strength of Schedule. Eerily similar resumes.
Elsewhere, TCU’s advance metrics on defense showcase a team that ranks among the best in the country, and many of their losses have remained within one score. While the eye test often paints a less flattering picture, sportsbooks have consistently valued TCU’s defensive efficiency and underlying statistical profile more than the team’s win-loss record. But eventually, their ability, or inability to win a game has to matter.
I’m taking Kansas because I believe their defense under D.K. McDonald is being undervalued here, while Isaiah Marshall’s dual-threat ability will give TCU trouble as he gains confidence each week. I like KU offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki to scheme well in this spot. TCU has no mojo going for it right now as the seat warms for Sonny Dykes.
Kansas wins. Kansas covers.
