The Arizona Wildcats and Texas Tech Red Raiders meet on Saturday in Lubbock in a Top 25 showdown that could have major implications on the Big 12 Championship race.
Both teams enter Week 9 at 6-1 overall and 3-1 in Big 12 play, but they’re coming off completely different Saturdays. Arizona made another statement by crushing Iowa State 39-3, while Texas Tech suffered its first loss of the season in a 37-24 road defeat at Cincinnati.
Now, Texas Tech returns home to a place where it has won 12 straight games, while Arizona gets another opportunity to prove it belongs among the top contenders in the Big 12. The matchup also features an intriguing battle between Noah Fifita and an aggressive Texas Tech defense that leads the country with five pick-sixes this season.
Here is everything you need to know about Arizona vs. Texas Tech in Week 9, including our prediction and pick for Saturday’s Big 12 showdown.
Texas Tech vs. Arizona Odds
- Spread: Texas Tech -3.5
- Over/Under: 54.5
- Moneyline: Arizona +134/Texas Tech -160
Odds as of Tuesday afternoon. Odds are subject to change.
The Biggest Question: Arizona’s Passing Game vs. Texas Tech’s Defense?
The Red Raiders’ defense has been underwhelming, at best. Texas Tech ranks 14th in the Big 12 Conference in passing yards allowed per game, ranking only ahead of Cincinnati and West Virginia. Now, this secondary does have 13 takeaways, which is tops in the Big 12. But that also tells me that they may be too aggressive, at times. And now they have to slow down Noah Fifita, who doesn’t make many mistakes. He’s thrown 18 touchdowns to just four interceptions this season and has the deepest wide receiver corps in the entire Big 12. Whoever wins this match up will win the game.
Houston vs. Utah Prediction and Pick
Prediction: Arizona 31, Texas Tech 24
Texas Tech was exposed last week at Cincinnati. Yes, they have talent, but they haven’t been able to put it all together this season. And after Saturday, there’s no evidence that it’s magically going to happen against one of the most underrated teams in the country, Arizona, who is playing some of the best football in America right now. Since losing to BYU on the road (a game they led in the second half), Arizona has won five-straight games by an average of nearly 24 points.
I haven’t even talked about the other side of the ball, where Arizona is Top 5 in passing defense in yards allowed per game, and ranked 3rd in the Big 12 in yards allowed per carry (3.1). The front seven has been outstanding, as that impressive run defense has done it against the Top 2 rushing offenses in the league (West Virginia, Cincinnati). They’ve racked up 24 sacks in seven games, good for second in the Big 12, and now take on a Texas Tech offensive line that has been spotty, at best, throughout the season.
Also, in a game that could come down to the final drive or two, Arizona’s red zone defense ranks tops in the Big 12, while Texas Tech comes in at No. 14. And as the game wears on, the Tech defense could get worn down. Tech is second-to-last in the Big 12 in Time of Possession, while Arizona is in the Top 5, this despite having a pass-heavy offense.
The icing on the cake on my pick? Special teams. Arizona is the best punt returning team in the Big 12. Texas Tech ranks 13th. These little things in a tough Top 25 match up can be the difference. And they will be come Saturday in Lubbock.
And if you want to know where the sharp money is: 62% of the tickets are on Texas Tech, but over 80% of the money is on Arizona. The line opened up at Arizona +4.5 and is down to +3.5. If you can still get more than a field goal, jump on it.
Arizona wins. Arizona covers.
