Two teams coming off their biggest wins of the season meet in Waco on Saturday as Iowa State travels to take on Baylor.
The Cyclones finally broke through last weekend with a wild 51-49 road win over No. 24 Oklahoma State, as Kyle Konrardy drilled a 34-yard field goal as time expired. Iowa State improved to 4-4 overall and 2-3 in Big 12 play, snapping a two-game losing streak in the process.
But perhaps no Big 12 team had a more surprising Week 9 than Baylor.
In their first game since firing Dave Aranda, the Bears went on the road and hammered UCF 41-9 behind interim head coach Joe Klanderman. DJ Lagway threw for 319 yards and four touchdowns as Baylor looked like a completely different football team from the one that had lost back-to-back games against TCU and Kansas.
Now the question is whether that was an emotional one-game bounce following the coaching change or the beginning of something more for the Bears.
Baylor returns home at 5-3 overall and 3-2 in Big 12 play with an opportunity to build some serious momentum heading into the final month of the season. Iowa State, meanwhile, will try to prove its upset of Oklahoma State wasn’t a one-week flash and get back above .500.
So, who gets it done in Waco? Let’s get to our Iowa State vs. Baylor prediction, pick and preview for Week 10.
Iowa State vs. Baylor Odds
- Spread: Baylor -9.5
- Over/Under: 50.5
- Moneyline: Baylor -375/Iowa State +290
Odds as of Tuesday afternoon. Odds are subject to change.
The Biggest Question: Iowa State Hangover?
We’ve seen hangover games around the Big 12 Conference in recent weeks. BYU went to UCF and got upset. UCF got blasted by Baylor last weekend after their upset win. Cincinnati upset Texas Tech and then got its doors blown off against Utah. Iowa State pulled off a Top 25 victory vs. Oklahoma State, by far the best win of Jimmy Rogers tenure thus far. So what do the Cyclones have in store for a repeat performance? Going on the road in this spot may actually be a benefit for the Cyclones. Let’s see how it all plays out.
Iowa State vs. Baylor Prediction and Pick
Prediction: Baylor 27, Iowa State 24
It’s so weird to see Baylor as such a massive favorite two weeks after firing their head coach Dave Aranda. But a 41-9 beatdown at UCF, combined with an extra day rest and playing at home vs. an Iowa State team that is coming off a season-defining win is why I believe this spread is as big as it is.
That being said, Baylor is getting way too much love in this spot. Iowa State has only lost to teams ranked in the Top 25 when they’ve played them. And they’ve hung tough, or won, in those games against Iowa, Utah, BYU and Oklahoma State. Now, they go take on a wildly inconsistent Baylor team that can look great on one day and look completely inept the following week. Now maybe interim head coach Joe Klandermann has totally flipped the attitude of this team for the better, and they’re about to play more consistent football and reach their potential. However, I need to see more than one game to believe that.
Iowa State’s defense concerns me more in this game than the offense, but they’ve also faced some of the best offenses in the Big 12 Conference in Utah and Oklahoma State. They also took on BYU when LJ Martin was healthy. I think they can hang with Baylor, and it’s a one-score game in the fourth quarter. Iowa State’s season deserves more respect than being this sizable of an underdog.
Baylor wins. Iowa State covers.
