No. 18 Oklahoma State returns from its bye week Saturday when the Cowboys welcome UCF to Boone Pickens Stadium for their Big 12 home opener in Stillwater.
Oklahoma State enters Week 6 at 3-1 overall and 1-0 in Big 12 play after winning three straight games, including its conference opener at West Virginia. UCF, meanwhile, is looking to bounce back after a brutal 27-17 loss at Houston in which the Knights built a 17-0 lead before being outscored 27-0 the rest of the way.
Now the Knights head to Stillwater for the first time in program history, where Oklahoma State will try to continue its impressive turnaround under Eric Morris. UCF has won each of the first two meetings between these programs, including a 45-3 blowout in 2023 and a 17-14 victory last season.
Here’s everything you need to know about UCF vs. Oklahoma State, including the latest odds, our biggest question and our prediction and pick for Saturday’s Week 6 matchup.
Oklahoma State vs. UCF Odds
- Spread: Oklahoma State -9.5
- Over/Under: 53.5
- Moneyline: Oklahoma State -350/UCF +275
Odds as of Tuesday afternoon. Odds are subject to change.
The Biggest Question: Can UCF Keep Up?
Oklahoma State’s offense has been humming since its opener vs. Tulsa. The Pokes are fresh off a bye week, while UCF is dealing with injuries on both sides of the ball, most notably to Alonza Barnett, who will miss another game, which means the keys of the offense remain with Keyone Jenkins at quarterback. Jenkins threw for a career-high 253 yards last week vs. Houston, but the Knights still managed to blow a 17-0 lead with 6 minutes left in the third quarter. UCF’s defense has been underrated, but this Cowboys team has taken it to a different level, and now they’re rested coming out of their bye week, while UCF will be playing its sixth-straight game.
Oklahoma State vs. UCF Prediction and Pick
Prediction: Oklahoma State 31, UCF 16
UCF’s secondary ranks 27th nationally in pass efficiency defense. That’s impressive. But they’ve played some unimpressive passing attacks thus far to rack up that national ranking. That’s nothing like what they’re about to face with Drew Mestemaker and the Cowboys, along with Wyatt Young and a plethora of wide receiver talent.
UCF’s offense has had to take a different approach with Jenkins. They have needed to slow things down, and be more methodical in their approach, which ranks this team 82nd in the country in offensive yards per play, while Oklahoma State is in the Top 15 in the country.
UCF had Houston on the ropes last week, taking a 17-0 lead deep into the third quarter before everything fell apart. The Knights were outscored 27-0 the rest of the way and now have to turn around and play their second straight ranked opponent on the road. Add in the injuries, which include starting center Jacob Maiava and linebacker Jayden Jennings, and you have a beleaguered UCF team coming to Stillwater, and a team that has traditionally struggled mightily on the road in the Big 12.
Now, I’ll admit there are some market signals suggesting UCF vs. the spread may be the play here, as the line has not budged, despite 80%+ of the tickets on the Pokes, but I can’t get myself to go there in this game.
Oklahoma State wins. Oklahoma State covers.
