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Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State Prediction, Pick and Odds for Week 11

Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State Prediction and Preview

No. 10 Texas Tech (8-1, 5-1 Big 12) travels to Stillwater to face Oklahoma State (6-3, 4-2 Big 12) on Saturday, November 14, in Week 11 of the 2026 college football season at Boone Pickens Stadium. The Cowboys are 3.5-point home favorites in a critical matchup between two teams fighting for a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game.

Texas Tech enters the game following a wild 53-48 victory over West Virginia, while Oklahoma State is coming off a dominant 66-28 win over Kansas State. The Red Raiders control their own destiny in the Big 12 title race, but a loss in Stillwater would open the door for several other contenders, including the Cowboys.

Kickoff is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. CT on ESPN. Below, we’ll break down the latest Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State odds, where to watch, key injuries and expected starters, along with our prediction and pick for this important Big 12 showdown.

Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State Odds

  • Spread: Oklahoma State -3.5
  • Over/Under: 72.5 points
  • Moneyline: Oklahoma State -156 | Texas Tech +130

Odds reported on November 10, 2026. Lines subject to change.

Where to Watch Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State

  • Date: Saturday, November 14, 2026
  • Kickoff: 8:30 p.m. CT / 9:30 p.m. ET
  • Location: Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater, Oklahoma
  • TV: ESPN
  • Streaming: ESPN app with an eligible TV subscription

Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State Injuries and Expected Starters

As the injury report comes out, we will update this section of our preview. Texas Tech is expected to start Thomas Castellanos at quarterback after he threw for 362 yards and five touchdowns while adding 102 rushing yards against West Virginia. Running back J’Koby Williams also rushed for 160 yards and a touchdown in the victory.

Oklahoma State is expected to start Drew Mestemaker, who accounted for six touchdowns against Kansas State, throwing for four, rushing for one and catching another.

Cowboys running back Caleb Hawkins is another player to watch after rushing for 175 yards and three touchdowns in the first half against Kansas State.

Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State Biggest Question: Does Texas Tech Have Any Chance vs. the Oklahoma State Passing Game?

Can Texas Tech’s defense bounce back after giving up 48 points to West Virginia, or will Oklahoma State’s explosive offense continue rolling at home?

Meanwhile, Oklahoma State scored 49 first-half points against Kansas State and has now scored at least 42 points in four of its last five games.

The Cowboys also have a major opportunity to shake up the Big 12 Championship race. Texas Tech is currently alone in second place at 5-1, while Oklahoma State is among five teams sitting at 4-2 in conference play.

Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State Prediction and Pick

Prediction: Oklahoma State 44, Texas Tech 38

Pick against the spread: Oklahoma State -3.5

It’s rare you see the sharp money so obviously play out in a spread, but per Wager Talk, 77% of the tickets are on Texas Tech plus the points, while only 37% of the money is on the Red Raiders. But the line hasn’t budged. That tells me a lot of casual money is being thrown on the Red Raiders as an underdog here in this spot. That suggests the casual fan is looking at the rankings and thinking, “Why wouldn’t I take Tech as an underdog?”

Well, the reason you wouldn’t do that is because it’s a bad bet. And what if I told you it’s in part because Joey McGuire isn’t getting enough credit for the quality coaching job he’s doing this year in Lubbock as he navigates through a tough quarterback situation that was unexpected in the spring, and a defense that isn’t close to what it was in 2025.

Drew Mestemaker now gets to go up against a Texas Tech secondary that is the second-worst in the Big 12 in passing yards allowed per game, ahead of only West Virginia, who the Cowboys lit up for over 50 points on the road a few weeks back. Oklahoma State scored 49 first-half points against Kansas State and has now scored at least 42 points in four of its last five games.

Now, the saving grace is Thomas Castellanos has changed this Tech offense for the better, and he’s given them an explosive side that has led to two of their best wins of the season against Arizona and West Virginia. But the Red Raiders are simply going to have to outscore OSU on the road to win this one.

Where Oklahoma State has also succeeded is in avoiding sacks, which negates a strength of the Red Raiders, who rank No. 2 in the Big 12 in sacks this year, while OSU has given up the second fewest sacks in the league. OSU at home, at night, with the biggest game in Stillwater in years against a suspect Texas Tech squad? I will roll with the Pokes to win and cover.

Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State FAQ

What time is Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State?

Texas Tech and Oklahoma State kick off Saturday, November 14, at 8:30 p.m. CT.

What channel is Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State on?

The game will be televised nationally on ESPN.

Who is favored in Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State?

Oklahoma State is favored by 3.5 points in the November 10 betting market.

Where is Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State being played?

The game will take place at Boone Pickens Stadium in Stillwater, Oklahoma.

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