A ranked Big 12 showdown is set for Saturday night in Houston as No. 18 Oklahoma State visits No. 20 Houston in a game that could have major implications in the conference championship race. The Cowboys and Cougars have both emerged as contenders through the first half of the season, setting up a fascinating matchup between two of the Big 12’s hottest teams. Which one keeps its momentum going? Here’s our Oklahoma State vs. Houston prediction, pick and preview for Week 7.
Oklahoma State vs. Houston Odds
- Spread: Houston -4.5
- Over/Under: 62.5
- Moneyline: Houston -192/Oklahoma State +158
Odds as of Tuesday afternoon. Odds are subject to change.
The Biggest Question: Can Houston Slow Down Oklahoma State’s Passing Game?
This is where I believe the game will be decided. The Cowboys have an elite passing attack, led by quarterback Drew Mestemaker, who is flying up NFL Draft boards by the week.
Houston has been solid defensively, but the Cougars have been much better against the run than the pass. Houston owns the No. 1 rushing defense in the Big 12, allowing just 74 yards per game on the ground. Against the pass, however, the Cougars rank 14th in the league. They also rank 14th in defensive efficiency.
That’s a dangerous matchup against an Oklahoma State offense that leads the Big 12 with 322.4 passing yards per game and ranks fourth in the conference in offensive efficiency.
If Houston can’t find a way to disrupt Mestemaker and prevent Oklahoma State’s receivers from creating explosive plays, the Cougars could be in for a long night.
Oklahoma State vs. Houston Prediction and Pick
Prediction: Oklahoma State 31, Houston 27
The wrong team is favored in this game.
I don’t care that it’s in Houston. The Cougars haven’t enjoyed much of a home-field advantage, and while I hope that changes this week for Houston’s sake, I have a hard time seeing it. Houston was really impressive last week in Manhattan, but I can’t overvalue one performance, especially considering Kansas State’s struggles this season.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma State feels like a team that keeps trending upward and coming together as the season progresses. The Cowboys are also 4-0 against the spread in their last four games.
Oklahoma State ranks 14th nationally in net yards per play, including 15th offensively and an underrated 31st defensively, despite already facing two solid offenses in Oregon and West Virginia. Houston’s defense ranks 75th nationally in yards per play, and I believe its struggles against the pass will ultimately be the difference Saturday.
That’s not to say Houston can’t make this a shootout. Conner Weigman is playing good football and just threw four touchdown passes in the Cougars’ win over Kansas State. But I trust Oklahoma State’s passing game more in this particular matchup.
Mestemaker, along with Caleb Hawkins, Wyatt Young, Justin Bowick and the rest of Oklahoma State’s playmakers, will make enough plays for the Pokes to come out on top.
The betting market has also moved toward Oklahoma State. The Cowboys opened as roughly 5.5-point underdogs, but the number has dropped closer to 4.5 across much of the market. That movement suggests increasing interest in Oklahoma State throughout the week. In a conference game I expect to be competitive, getting more than a field goal with Eric Morris’ team is an intriguing proposition.
Oklahoma State wins. Oklahoma State covers.
