The Big 12 Conference is down to three weeks left in the regular season and the contenders are running out of time.
Well, not Utah. The Utes remained undefeated after beating BYU in the Holy War last weekend. They’re on a glide path to their first Big 12 championship game in Arlington, which also happens to be the last Big 12 championship game in conference history.
The expansion of the playoff to 24 teams will eliminate the title game next season. Texas Tech enters the week as the only team in the conference with one league loss. But the Red Raiders have a huge showdown coming up with Oklahoma State on Saturday, one that will decide if the Red Raiders remain in second place or if the Cowboys can create an extraordinary amount of chaos for the second Big 12 title game berth.
So, who’s stock went up and who’s stock went down? Let’s look at the big movers across the league.
Stock Up
Oklahoma State QB Drew Mestemaker
It’s starting to look like Oklahoma State quarterback Drew Mestemaker won’t be gracing us with his presence in 2027. Obviously, the redshirt sophomore could change his mind. But after what he did against Kansas State — and the NFL general manager that was in attendance — it’s getting more difficult to find reasons for him to stay.
Along with throwing for more than 300 yards against Kansas State, Mestemaker became the first player in Big 12 history — and just the second player in FBS in the last 30 years — to throw for at least four touchdown passes with at least one rushing touchdown and one receiving touchdown in the same game. The only other player to do it was Northern Illinois quarterback Jordan Lynch.
Mestemaker has emerged as the top quarterback in the NFL Draft. Just about every outside analyst agrees on that. Things can change quickly. He has two months to decide. But, I’ll say the same thing I’ve said to Oklahoma State fans — enjoy watching him play in the Big 12 while you can. Because I don’t think he’s going to be in an OSU uniform in 2027.
I’m happy to be wrong, though.
Baylor
To paraphrase Sammy Davis Jr., “The Klanderman can.”
Since Baylor fired Dave Aranda and made defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman the interim head coach, the Bears have won two straight games, clinched a bowl berth and as our Pete Mundo pointed out have a path to the Big 12 championship game.
Granted, the Bears need help like a many of the two-loss teams in the conference. But most of us thought the Bears were going in the tank after Aranda was fired. Now? The Bears are competitive, winning games and Klanderman is making management’s job of finding a new head coach either easier or harder, depending on your point of view.
I’m not sure I could have envisioned that two weeks ago. I’m not sure anyone envisioned this two weeks ago.
The Big 12
When the College Football Playoff rankings were released on Tuesday, the Big 12 had six teams in the Top 25. Granted, only one of them would be in the playoff if it started today — the Utah Utes.
But having six teams in the top 25 is a strong signal the conference has the depth we anticipated. The first five ranked teams are the team most of us expected to compete for the league crown and all have two or fewer league losses — Utah, Texas Tech, BYU, Houston and Arizona.
The wild card was Oklahoma State at No. 25. I wasn’t expecting that. A hat tip to the Cowboys and head coach Eric Morris. It was the program’s first Top 25 CFP ranking in nearly three years.
The overall ranking shows that at least the CFP selectors respect what the Big 12 is doing and the competition, even if much of the country doesn’t.
Stock Down
TCU
I’ll have more to write about Sonny Dykes in our hot seat coaching piece later this week. But I think it is abundantly clear change is coming to TCU whether it be assistant coaches or transfers.
It isn’t just that the Horned Frogs lost to Arizona on Friday. It’s the way they lost. That might have been one of the most absurd ways I’ve seen a team lose a game in my entire life. And when you have a coach whose seat is so incredibly hot and a fan base so incredibly fed up with this program’s inability to follow up its 2022 CFP championship game berth with anything meaningful, it’s the kind of loss that can not only spell the death knell for a head coach but the death knell for an entire season.
It’s hard to believe that in August we were talking about the Horned Frogs as a dark horse Big 12 championship team. They’re nowhere close to that.
Colorado
Colorado is one of three teams in the conference with just one league win. It’s hard to envision that there won’t be major changes at this program after the season. But that’s also been par for the course with Deion Sanders at Colorado. It seems every year he makes wholesale changes to the coaching staff or to the roster.
This year, he went in and brought in new offensive coordinator (Brennan Marion) and a new defensive coordinator (Chris Marve) and brought in another boatload of new players. He committed to Julian Lewis as a starting quarterback, and nothing has worked.
Well, that’s not true. The defense, specifically the defensive line, has played well. The offense is a mess. It’s a far cry from two years ago when quarterback Shedeur Sanders and two-way Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter helped dominate Big 12 defenses.
The program looks directionless. The last three games are going to be a slog and there will be plenty of questions about what happens after the season.
Kansas and Kansas State
Remember those other two Big 12 teams I mentioned that only have one win? Well, here they are. The Sunflower State might have, pound for pound, the worst two teams in FBS. They’ve combined for seven wins this season.
Kansas State was throttled by Oklahoma State on Saturday, giving up more points to the Cowboys than they’ve ever allowed in a game in Manhattan. Kansas is frustrating. They’re much more talented on paper than they’re showing on the field and the quarterback situation is far from ideal.
Kansas State head coach Colin Klein will get some grace because this is his first season and he’s a program legend. I’m starting to wonder how much grace head coach Lance Leipold will get at Kansas, even with a contract that holds a significant buyout.
