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ESPN Gives Big 12 Only 26% Chance to Make College Football Playoff in 2018

NCAA Football: Texas Christian at Baylor

It’s only April and ESPN is already trashing the Big 12. What else is new?!

In a new study by its Football Power Index projections initiative, the conference only has a 26% chance to make the College Football Playoff, which is the lowest of any of the Power 5 conferences.

Top-Four Strength Of Record Odds

CONFERENCE AT LEAST ONE TOP-4 SOR TEAM AT LEAST TWO TOP-4 SOR TEAMS
SEC 84% 28%
Big Ten 80% 19%
ACC 65% 5%
Pac-12 51% 4%
Independents 34% <1%
Big 12 26% <1%

 
In ESPN’s FPI rankings, it gives Oklahoma the best chance to win all its games, at just 6.5%.

But no one else in the Big 12 even has more than a 1% chance of winning every game.

Texas: .5%
Oklahoma State: .2%
Everyone else: 0%

Ouch. And bizarre. No West Virginia? Maybe the best offense in not just the Big 12, but the country, with a Heisman contender at quarterback? That doesn’t make sense to me.

It also gives OU the best chance, at 54%, to win the conference, while Texas is at 21% and Oklahoma State is at 13%. Then it’s TCU at 4% and West Virginia at 2%.

Am I shocked or surprised? Not really. And while I think the Big 12 is as up in the air as it’s been in 3-4 years, there are also several options of teams that could emerge as the top team in the conference, and as a result, a College Football Playoff contender. Oklahoma, West Virginia and Texas would be by top three as of this moment, but there’s still room for the next tier to make a move as well.

Just chalk it up as another chip on the shoulder for the Big 12. Nothing new here.

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