No. 2 BYU heads to Orlando for a Week 8 Big 12 matchup against UCF after one of the biggest wins in program history. The undefeated Cougars are coming off a thrilling 28-24 victory over Notre Dame in Provo, but now must quickly turn the page for a road conference game against the Knights. Can BYU avoid the emotional letdown and keep its perfect season rolling, or can UCF pull off one of the biggest upsets of the Big 12 season? BYU and UCF kick off at 3:30 p.m. CT on FOX. Here’s our prediction, pick and preview.
BYU vs. UCF Odds
- Spread: BYU -6.5
- Over/Under: 43.5
- Moneyline: BYU -245/UCF +198
Odds as of Tuesday afternoon. Odds are subject to change.
The Biggest Question: Does BYU Have a Hangover Game?
The BYU Cougars are riding high after one of the biggest wins in program history, beating Notre Dame in Provo last week. Now, the question is: Can they avoid the hangover game on the road in humid Orlando against a rested UCF team coming off a bye week? In August, I gave you game-by-game predictions for the entire Big 12 schedule, and I predicted BYU would go 10-2, with a win over Notre Dame, and a loss to UCF. While I think that prediction is less likely today given UCF’s issues and injuries this year, it’s still a dangerous spot for the Cougars going into this game on Saturday.
BYU vs. UCF Prediction and Pick
Prediction: BYU 24, UCF 20
The BYU Cougars are 6-0 against the spread? Is this the weekend that come to an end? UCF has been an underrated 4-2 against the number so far this season, and they’re well rested, Keyone Jenkins gets a fifth-straight start in place of the injured Alonza Barnett and two more weeks getting reps with the 1’s, while Alex Grinch’s defense has been underrated thus far. They have a win over TCU, and had leads against Oklahoma State and Houston, before blowing these games in the second half. Do they finally get over the hump this week against the Cougars?
I believe UCF can keep this game closer than people expect, and I’ll mostly call this pick a “situational play” for all the reasons I’ve mentioned so far in this column. And if you’re looking for another interesting tidbit, UCF is Top 25 in the country in turnover margin this season. BYU is currently ranked No. 80. At home, rested off a bye, playing a team coming off a historic win, could a mistake or two turn this game in favor of UCF? Or at least a cover? It’s very possible.
One interesting betting-market trend is the lack of movement toward BYU. Despite the Cougars entering as the higher-profile team, sportsbooks have generally held the spread between six and 6.5 points and have shown little interest in moving the number through the key touchdown range. That could indicate respect for UCF, particularly at home, where the Knights are capable of turning this into a competitive four-quarter game.
BYU wins. UCF covers.
