Iowa State travels to Tucson for a Week 8 Big 12 matchup against No. 25 Arizona, as the Wildcats look to continue one of the quieter strong starts in the conference. Arizona enters the weekend ranked in the AP Top 25, while Iowa State gets another opportunity to pick up a significant road win and shake up the Big 12 race. Can the Wildcats protect their home field, or will the Cyclones spoil Arizona’s rise? Iowa State and Arizona kick off at 7:30 p.m. CT on ESPN2. Here’s our prediction, pick and preview.
Iowa State vs. Arizona Odds
- Spread: Arizona -9.5
- Over/Under: 50.5
- Moneyline: Arizona -360/Iowa State +280
Odds as of Tuesday afternoon. Odds are subject to change.
The Biggest Question: Who Won the Bye Week?
Both teams are coming off the bye week, so the rest is a wash on this one. But, which team comes off the bye week and looks like they made major strides during their time off? Iowa State is looking to find its offense under Jaylen Raynor, who has led the team to a No. 14 ranking in scoring offense and No. 15 ranking in total offense. Meantime, when looking at Arizona, they’ve been underrated so far, but if there’s an area of improvement, they need to look at the running game, where they rank 14th in the Big 12 in rushing yards per game.
Iowa State vs. Arizona Prediction and Pick
Prediction: Arizona 34, Iowa State 20
Iowa State has done a decent job trying to punch above its weight class, but I believe that comes to an end this week, with the long road trip in a late-night kick off against a team that’s well rested. The Cyclones now go up against a front seven that’s been very underrated, and has racked up 19 sacks in six games, good for second in the Big 12. On the other side, Iowa State has not gotten to the quarterback this season, ranking last in the league in sacks. And that doesn’t bode well considering if there’s one area the Arizona offense has struggled with at times, it’s protecting quarterback Noah Fifita.
Another metric that scares me for Iowa State in this game is the fact that the Cyclones rank 117th in the country in defensive yards per play at 6.70. Now, they’re having to take on an Arizona team that is Top 10 in the country in offensive yards per play (7.81). Arizona’s passing offense is No. 2 in the Big 12, while Iowa State ranks No. 13 in passing yards allowed per game. Combine that with Iowa State’s inability to keep up on offense, and I don’t like how this game shapes up for the Cyclones going into Saturday night.
Arizona has won every game by double digits, except for their one loss at BYU, which they held a second half lead in Provo early in the season. Since then, the Wildcats have only improved and gained confidence.
The betting market appears to agree with the matchup advantages Arizona brings into this game. Despite Iowa State’s reputation and overall record, the Wildcats remain favored by more than a touchdown at home. That’s likely a reflection of just how explosive Arizona’s offense has been and the concerns surrounding an Iowa State defense that has struggled to get off the field against quality competition. If Arizona protects Noah Fifita and continues generating explosive plays through the air, it’s easy to see the Wildcats creating separation as the game wears on.
Arizona wins. Arizona covers.
