Colorado heads to Stillwater for a Week 8 Big 12 matchup against No. 18 Oklahoma State, with both teams looking to rebound from close losses. The Buffaloes gave Utah everything it could handle before falling 27-24, while the Cowboys’ comeback attempt came up short in a 35-32 loss at Houston. Can Oklahoma State get back on track at home, or can Colorado build on an encouraging performance and pull off the upset? Colorado and Oklahoma State kick off at 7:00 p.m. CT on FS1. Here’s our prediction, pick and preview.
Colorado vs. Oklahoma State Odds
- Spread: Oklahoma State -13.5
- Over/Under: 55.5
- Moneyline: Oklahoma State -600/Colorado +430
Odds as of Tuesday afternoon. Odds are subject to change.
The Biggest Question: Can Oklahoma State Avoid A Slow Start?
The Cowboys have been plagued by slow starts, and it finally came back to bite them against Houston. This team continues to struggle early, having been outscored 28-13 in the first quarter in three Big 12 games. At some point, head coach Eric Morris needs to nip that in the bud and figure out why his team has been getting off to such slow starts in recent weeks. If this team wants to stay in the Big 12 Championship race, this needs to end. And while they can probably still get by Colorado like this, as the competition stiffens, they won’t have the luxury of getting off to slow starts anymore.
Colorado vs. Oklahoma State Prediction and Pick
Prediction: Oklahoma State 31, Colorado 20
Oklahoma State is back home after a loss, so there’s reason enough to like the Pokes here, as the Buffaloes continue to struggle with a mediocre offense, sloppy mistakes and inconsistency across the board. The Cowboys have an elite passing game led by quarterback Drew Mestemaker, and the weapons are all over the field. However, the Colorado defense has not been the problem for this team. Given their Strength of Schedule (No. 12 in the country), they’ve been able to play for 3.5 quarters with Texas Tech, and held a second-half lead against Utah last week. Granted, both games were at home, but the Cowboys’ defense has given me enough pause to consider Isaac Wilson possibly putting up enough points to make this mildly interesting in the second half and get a cover.
Colorado’s offense struggled more against Baylor and Texas Tech, two teams who can get to the quarterback, than they did vs. Utah, who is not an elite pass rushing team, and neither is Oklahoma State (No. 14 in sacks in the Big 12). One area of struggle for the Buffaloes has been turnover margin (No. 121 in the country), but the good news? Oklahoma State ranks No. 116. Both teams haven’t been able to win the turnover battle so far this season. So I’ll roll with the Pokes to get the win, but as Isaac Wilson continues to get comfortable with the 1’s in this offense, I believe the Buffaloes will do enough to cover this nearly two-touchdown spread, but the Pokes will walk out with a relatively comfortable win.
From a betting perspective, the market has remained surprisingly firm on Oklahoma State. The Cowboys opened as roughly a 14-point favorite and still sit around two touchdowns at most sportsbooks despite Colorado drawing significant interest from bettors. That’s typically a sign that bookmakers remain comfortable needing the Buffaloes and continue to view the gap between these teams as substantial. Even so, Colorado has shown enough defensive competitiveness against a difficult schedule to stay within the number, even if Oklahoma State ultimately gets the win.
Oklahoma State wins. Colorado covers.
