One of the biggest games of the Big 12 season takes place in Salt Lake City when No. 14 Houston visits No. 10 Utah in a matchup with major conference championship implications. Houston is coming off a 35-32 win over Oklahoma State behind five touchdown passes from Conner Weigman, while Utah survived a tough road test at Colorado, 27-24. With ESPN College GameDay also heading to Salt Lake City, the stage is set for a massive Saturday night showdown. Houston and Utah kick off at 10:15 p.m. CT on ESPN. Here’s our prediction, pick and preview.
Houston vs. Utah Odds
- Spread: Utah -6.5
- Over/Under: 56.5
- Moneyline: Utah -240/Houston +195
Odds as of Tuesday afternoon. Odds are subject to change.
The Biggest Question: Who Wins the Ground Game?
These two teams are both in the Top 5 in the Big 12, and nearly identical, averaging 220 rushing yards per game. We expect this from Utah’s offense, led by Wayshawn Parker and Devon Dampier, but Houston’s rushing attack has been a pleasant surprise, as Makhi Hughes and Re’shaun Sanford II have really created an excellent 1-2 punch for Willie Fritz. Also, Conner Weigman has been a better running quarterback than many probably expected coming into the season. Now when it comes to stopping the run, both teams are also in the Top 5 in the Big 12, with Houston coming in second in rushing yards allowed per game, while Utah ranks No. 5. So, which one gives on Saturday night in Salt Lake City?
Houston vs. Utah Prediction and Pick
Prediction: Houston 31, Utah 30
Utah is home. And I hate picking against Utah in Salt Lake City. But they have just been underwhelming the last two and a half games against Iowa State, Kansas and Colorado. In league play alone, they’re in the bottom half of the Big 12 in passing defense, and that’s against quarterbacks Jaylen Raynor, Isaiah Marshall and Isaac Wilson, not exactly future Hall of Famers. That pass defense has been a real concern, and now they take on one of the best quarterbacks in the Big 12, with plenty of weapons like Amare Thomas, while also having to figure out how to generate a pass rush, which Utah really hasn’t done this season. Good luck.
The weather won’t be a problem on Saturday night, so I expect a high-scoring game and would also hammer the over in this one, as Houston’s defense, while it’s been a bit more consistent, it’s had its inconsistencies as well. Houston’s defense ranks 96th in the country in defensive yards allowed per play, but unlike the opponents Utah has faced so far, the Cougars have played Texas Tech, Oregon State and Oklahoma State, the latter two who rank in the Top 10 in offensive yards per play.
From a betting perspective, Utah has remained a solid favorite throughout the week, but Houston has quietly attracted a disproportionate share of the money wagered on the game. That suggests some respected bettors believe the Cougars are live underdogs in this spot. Given Utah’s struggles defending the pass and Houston’s ability to generate explosive plays, it’s not hard to see why.
Houston wins. Houston covers.
