Houston returns from its bye week looking to re-establish itself in the Big 12 race when Cincinnati comes to town on Saturday.
The No. 17 Cougars enter Week 10 at 6-2 overall and 3-2 in Big 12 play, with both losses coming by one possession on the road against two of the conference’s best teams in Texas Tech and Utah.
Houston had last weekend off after falling 21-13 at Utah in Week 8, giving Willie Fritz’s team two weeks to prepare for the final four games of the regular season.
Cincinnati, meanwhile, is looking to pick itself up after a disastrous first half against those same Utes.
One week after knocking off Texas Tech 37-24, the Bearcats fell behind Utah 42-6 by halftime before eventually losing 49-25. Cincinnati is now 5-3 overall and 2-3 in Big 12 play after losing three of its last four conference games.
That makes Saturday’s game an important one for both teams.
Houston needs a win to remain within striking distance of the top of the Big 12 standings, while Cincinnati is trying to prove its impressive win over Texas Tech wasn’t simply a one-week flash.
So, which team gets back on track in Houston? Let’s get to our Cincinnati vs. Houston prediction, pick and preview for Week 10.
Houston vs. Cincinnati Odds
- Spread: Houston -10.5
- Over/Under: 62.5
- Moneyline: Houston -450/Cincinnati +340
Odds as of Tuesday afternoon. Odds are subject to change.
The Biggest Question: Can Cincinnati Run the Ball?
The Cincinnati Bearcats come into this game with the top rushing attack in the Big 12 Conference, averaging 229 rushing yards per game. But, they have to go up against a Houston rushing defense that is the fourth-best in the league. Last week, Cincinnati’s offense was sporadic, but did rack up 193 rushing yards, however a bulk of those, notably a 48-yard touchdown, came in the second half when this game was long out of reach for the Bearcats in a 49-25 loss to Utah.
Houston vs. Cincinnati Prediction and Pick
Prediction: Houston 38, Cincinnati 24
Houston is coming off a bye week after losing two weeks ago against Utah in a game they were in until their final drive. The Cougars have two Big 12 losses, but their Texas Tech game came down to a 2-point conversion attempt, and they were down 14-13 to Utah on their final drive until a costly turnover led to Utah punching it in for an 8-point win.
But the Cougars are home and rested, while Cincinnati has a third-straight game against a Top 20 team, and this one in one the road. It’s also their fourth-straight game, which started with a road trip to Morgantown. That’s a brutal stretch for the Bearcats. Now, they have to go take on an angry Houston team that has no choice but to win out to have any chance to try and make a Big 12 Championship Game.
Now both of these teams have had their strengths on offense, with Cincinnati ranking No. 16 in the country in offensive yards per play, while Houston ranks No. 26. While Cincinnati ranks No. 111 in the country and Houston ranks No. 114 in defensive yards per play. But if there’s a reason I am going with Houston here, is the rest, Cincinnati grind of a schedule, and Houston’s passing attack getting to take advantage of a Cincinnati pass defense that ranks third-worst in the Big 12.
Houston wins. Houston covers.
