Two teams desperately looking to bounce back meet in Lawrence on Saturday as UCF travels to take on Kansas.
The Jayhawks return home at 3-5 overall and 1-4 in Big 12 play after letting a very winnable game slip away at TCU. Kansas led 13-0 at halftime and outgained the Horned Frogs 451-286, but turnovers and missed opportunities helped TCU rally for a 22-16 victory.
Cole Ballard made his first start of the season at quarterback and threw for 285 yards and a touchdown, but Kansas couldn’t finish the job. Now the Jayhawks need three wins over their final four games just to reach bowl eligibility.
UCF isn’t feeling much better after Week 9.
One week after stunning BYU in double overtime, the Knights came crashing back to earth with a 41-9 home loss to Baylor in the Bears’ first game since firing Dave Aranda. UCF dropped to 4-4 overall and 2-3 in Big 12 play and now heads back on the road, where the Knights have struggled mightily.
UCF is 0-3 away from home this season and has lost 12 consecutive road games dating back to 2024.
That makes Saturday feel like a significant game for two teams whose seasons could go in very different directions over the final month.
So, who gets back on track in Lawrence? Let’s get to our UCF vs. Kansas prediction, pick and preview for Week 10.
UCF vs. Kansas Odds
- Spread: Kansas -3.5
- Over/Under: 47.5
- Moneyline:Kansas -146/UCF +122
Odds as of Tuesday afternoon. Odds are subject to change.
The Biggest Question: Which Team Overperforms on Offense?
Now, what do I mean by this? So Kansas is seventh in the Big 12 in total yards per game in the Big 12, but they only rank 13th in points per game. Meantime, UCF is completely reversed. The Knights rank 11th in scoring offense in the Big 12 Conference, but rank 16th (last) in total yards per game. So does the Kansas offense come up short of its total yards output, again, or does UCF overperform its yards per game by efficiently squeezing as many points as they can out of a team that doesn’t really move the ball all that effectively.
UCF vs. Kansas Prediction and Pick
Prediction: Kansas 24, UCF 23
Both these teams are coming off terrible losses, for different reasons. UCF was blasted by Baylor after a BYU upset, while Kansas had a two-score lead over TCU and blew it in the second half thanks to bone-headed coaching decisions. Which team is ready to bounce back in this game?
Kansas is at home, which gives them an edge, as far as I am concerned. So I’ll pick them to win outright, but I am going to split this one and go with UCF to cover the spread to hedge my pick. The Knights have been in the Top 40 in the country in turnover margin this season, while Kansas ranks 117th in the country. Their remains uncertainty at quarterback for Kansas between either Isaiah Marshall or Cole Ballard, while UCF has had an extra day of rest and should be incredibly fired up after they were embarrassed at home last week against Baylor.
Kansas wins. UCF covers.
