One of the beautiful things about college football is the parody and chaos that we see each and every week. There are, after all, 22 moving parts on the field every time that the ball is snapped, and just one player out of place can change the course of a game, hell even a season, in just one play.
While watching football and understanding the nuances of what is going takes a bit of experience, the real talent is in being able to put your money where your mouth is when it comes to betting on the world’s greatest sport.
Here are some betting trends you should pay attention to in Week 5 of Big 12 action, with an upset, a lock, and a bad bet to avoid on Saturday.
Underdog to Watch: Kansas (+3) vs. Iowa State
I know we’re not supposed do this, but isn’t everyone pulling for Kansas at this point, as long as they aren’t playing your team (Sorry Cyclone Nation) this week? The Jayhawks have been one of the great stories in college football to this point and on Saturday they have a chance to extend their amazing start to 5-0. As Vegas sees it, Iowa State is the team to beat in this game, but Kansas will play in front of a sellout crowd for the second week in a row. I don’t know if its a gut feeling, or the fact that Kansas is 4-0 ATS this year, but I feel really good about Kansas in this game as the underdog to win outright.
Underdogs for 2022: 1-2 SU; 1-2 ATS
Lock of the Week: West Virginia (+9.5) at Texas
There is a buzz in Austin that Quinn Ewers might not be ready to go this weekend as he continues to with the pain of an SC sprain he suffered against Alabama. If he indeed sits for another game, I expect this line to plummet, and at nearly 10 point, it is a good time to jump on this for betting purposes. I still expect Texas to find a way to win this game, but I don’t see it being by two scores if Texas’ starting quarterback is out again. Plus, J.T. Daniels and West Virginia’s offense is good enough to stretch the Longhorns regardless of what happens on the other side of the ball. Texas wins, but West Virginia covers.
Locks for 2022: 2-1
Bad Bet of the Week: Oklahoma State vs. Baylor UNDER (56.5)
I know. This game was a slugfest both times these teams met last season, and 56.5 seems too high. I cannot stress this enough: Don’t do it. Oklahoma State’s offense has looked nearly unstoppable to this point in the season, and Baylor’s defense, while still good, isn’t quite what it was last season. You also need to take into account that the OSU defense has struggled thus far and it appeared that Baylor found itself offensively last week in Ames. I expect this game to break 60, and nearly thought about making it my lock of the week. However, this seemed like the best opportunity for a public service announcement, so I decided to go with it here.
Bad Bets for 2022: 2-1